I think Palin, regardless of any poll right now, is extremely tough to beat in Iowa. The caucuses are passion based and that's what Sarah supporters are, passionate. I think the idea that Thune or Pawlenty could play well in Iowa is not likely. Gephardt was an Iowan and still lost the caucuses in 2004. Proximity doesn't seem to be important.
A big win in Iowa catapults Palin towards South Carolina and Haley's probable endorsement. That all but seals the deal for her and that's what concerns so many Republicans. It's for this reason, I see Bush as a likely entrant. If Obama's fortunes improve over the next year or so, look for Jeb to skip and Palin to become the sacrificial Goldwater style lamb.
Actually, Gephardt was from Missouri, not Iowa.
