electoral map after 2020-guess (user search)
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  electoral map after 2020-guess (search mode)
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Author Topic: electoral map after 2020-guess  (Read 28697 times)
Zarn
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« on: March 18, 2009, 11:56:33 AM »



     Since predictions this far out don't matter, there is an unlikely scenario I thought of that could lead to a 50/50 election looking like the above map.

Democrats will never carry Oklahoma, Alabama and Mississipi, whereas Republicans will never carry New York, Vermont and Hawaii. I have serious doubts about your map.

This is what would the 2020 map look like with the same trends that in 2008 ( I applied a correction for home states, 10 pts for president and 5 for V-P ) and with a toss-up on the popular vote.

Obviously this map doesn't seem very realistic : I don't think that republicans will carry Illinois. However, it show us interesting things about Arizona and the west coast... Democrats have still a structural advantage ( 282 E.V. )

I guess someone never heard of Ronald Reagan... or when the Republican Party was the party of the North.
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Zarn
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Posts: 3,820


« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2009, 02:24:50 PM »

That's 20 years from now.

I'm not a mathematician, but today plus 20 years does not equal today.
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Zarn
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Posts: 3,820


« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2009, 06:16:25 PM »

Verily stop using facts to support the idea that anything is possible. People don't like facts.
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