2008 Senate Elections???

[WMS]

Domenici (NM) - Retires.  I have no insight on NM, so if WMS could help...?

Sure.

It is not 100% clear what Domenici will do. A few years ago it looked like he was going to retire for health reasons, but he's feeling better now and it now looks like he'll run again. But we'll have to see, won't we?

This race is easily the most bipolar Senate race for 2008. If Domenici runs, it will be extremely uncompetitive. If Domenici retires, it will be extremely competitive. No middle ground here.

As for why that is...Domenici is very popular in NM - not too far right, and good at bringing in federal tax dollars from Connecticut. He won ultra-Democratic Rio Arriba County back in 2002, after all. Now balance that with the fact that NM is highly competitive as a state, with pools of voters from all four political quadrants. And both parties have good benches to draw on for this race.

Does this help, ian?

[WMS]

Domenici (NM) - Retires.  I have no insight on NM, so if WMS could help...?

Sure.

It is not 100% clear what Domenici will do. A few years ago it looked like he was going to retire for health reasons, but he's feeling better now and it now looks like he'll run again. But we'll have to see, won't we?

This race is easily the most bipolar Senate race for 2008. If Domenici runs, it will be extremely uncompetitive. If Domenici retires, it will be extremely competitive. No middle ground here.

As for why that is...Domenici is very popular in NM - not too far right, and good at bringing in federal tax dollars from Connecticut. He won ultra-Democratic Rio Arriba County back in 2002, after all. Now balance that with the fact that NM is highly competitive as a state, with pools of voters from all four political quadrants. And both parties have good benches to draw on for this race.

Does this help, ian?

Yes, thank you, WMS! 
Who do you think would run in both parties if Domenici were to retire?

You're quite welcome.
As for your question...Domenici is close to Heather Wilson in NM-1, since he basically picked her to run in 1998. I'm pretty certain he'd want her to succeed him. However, there will likely be ambitious Reps who want the spot for themselves, especially from the right-libertarian wing on the NM Reps...Stevan Pearce down in NM-2 is one example, plus plenty of others such as John Sanchez (ex-State Rep, failed Guv candidate). Wilson would be the favorite, but not without a primary challenge, quite possibly rather intense.
On the Dem side, everyone and their dog would probably run in the primary. One potential candidate is my favorite, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez. But the left wing of the NM Dems doesn't like him, and there's some patron factions that don't either. Quite frankly, there would be so many candidates running from the Dem side that I can't predict who would win the primary...but it would be very, very, messy.

Hmm, the primary election would be every bit as insane as the general election...

[WMS]

Pete Domenici (NM) - if he retires, this would likely remain Republican if Heather Wilson runs.

That is a definite possibility although a lot would depend on the political mood in 2008. Also on other considerations I mention below...

Domenici (NM) - Might retire; if Richardson is heading the ticket a Dem pickup is very likely

Improves the odds, yes; very likely, no. I direct you to the NM 2002 Commissioner of Public Land race, a statewide race where, in a very good year for NM Dems (in large part to Richardson boosting the Dem vote totals), the Reps still took the office because the Dems ran...wait for it...a political hack from Northern New Mexico (and a rather corrupt one, at that). If they run another such candidate in 2008 - and they very well might, knowing local politics here - Richardson's presence on the ticket is no guarantee of victory.

It all depends on the candidates, really...

[WMS]

Good point WMS.

Thank you. The primary election will be every bit as important as the general election in an open seat scenario...not that I get to vote in it o/c.