2006 Predictions

[WMS]

And Texas, well that's just plain funny.  Unless Hutchinson gets caught in bed with a dead black boy, she won't lose and perhaps not even then.

What ever happened to the Texas Democratic Party anyway?

And will/would a growing Hispanic population and serious financial backing do any good?

Well, Hutchinson is pretty much untouchable,  Heck, me, Texasgurl and probably jimrtex have voted for Hutchinson before, so she certainly has support from a lot of different wings of the political spectrum and her numbers in Texas agree with that.  She typically shows about 60%-70% approval.

Now, as for the rest of the Democratic party in Texas, your points would be accurate had not a couple of things happened in the 1990s.

The Hispanic population is the great equalizer, supposedly.  The problem is that the Republicans in Texas are probably the most astute Republican party nationwide in its dealings with the Hispanic bloc.  They understand what Al understands.  They are decently liberal economically, especially towards education, while being conservative socially.

The Republicans understand this as well, and while being in control of matters, have spent gobs of money on education, while staying conservative socially and on most other matters.  They have consistently drawn 40+% of the Hispanic vote in Texas since 1998 and there's a saying in Texas that if a Republican gets 35% of the Hispanic vote in Texas, he can't lose.  In addition, the Hispanic population there has been moving towards identifying more as Independents now than ever before.  The Hispanic bloc in Texas used to be one of the most Democratic in the nation, now it is the least Democratic.

Which brings me to the second problem in the Texas Democratic Party.  They have simply moved too far to the left, especially in social matters, which is not where Texas stands.  They have tried to appease the liberals in Austin and in the centers of Houston and Dallas, while pushing their percentage in the other 2/3rd and 3/4ths of the voting population of the state (suburbs and rural areas) down to 30% or below of the total vote.

They also have lost considerable financial backing, and do not have the candidates to run in races.  I would say the Democrats do not run candidates in 20% of Texas races, especially in North Texas, where the second strongest party is the Libertarians right now.

And all of this is why the Governor's race next year is going to be between Rick Perry and Carole Keaton Rylander in the Republican primary.  Mark my words.

Parts of this analysis apply to the national Democratic party as well, I'd say. Especially the bits about Hispanics - they're not liberals, damnit - and the shift to the left of the Texas Democratic Party torpedoing their numbers outside of urban cores.