Rothenberg Senate Rankings

[cinyc]

No way Gillibrand should be considered safe, even in New York.   She's not well known enough yet and may face a brutal primary challenge from someone downstate.  Couple that with the possibility of a prominent Republican other than Peter King getting into the race if things get ugly enough, and I think that seat belongs in the Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party pile instead.

Chuck Schumer (unfortunately) is safe.

[cinyc]

No way Gillibrand should be considered safe, even in New York.   She's not well known enough yet and may face a brutal primary challenge from someone downstate.  Couple that with the possibility of a prominent Republican other than Peter King getting into the race if things get ugly enough, and I think that seat belongs in the Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party pile instead.

Rothenberg rates "safe" according to party control, so he's factoring in a Gillibrand primary defeat by any viable Democrat as "safe."

In that sense, she is, because betting against a Democratic senator in N.Y. is like betting against a Republican senator in Utah. When was the last time one lost a race? The 1800s?

New York had one or more Republican Senators from 1947 until 1998.  Utah hasn't been represented by a Democrat Senator since 1976.

Most incumbents haven't lost a race, but the last appointed temporary Senator from New York, Republican Charles Goodell, lost a three-way race to Conservative James Buckley in 1970.  That's right - New York elected a Conservative Senator within the past 40 years. 

[cinyc]

Most incumbents haven't lost a race, but the last appointed temporary Senator from New York, Republican Charles Goodell, lost a three-way race to Conservative James Buckley in 1970.  That's right - New York elected a Conservative Senator within the past 40 years. 

Do you really think that has any relevance to a Senate election in New York in 2010? Are you familiar with the importance of the Nassau Republican machine to statewide wins, and what kind of shape it's in now? How about relative population growth upstate?

No Democratic senator has lost a race for reelection in New York in eons. The last Republican to be elected to the Senate for the first time was in 1980, and that was in a 3-way race with a liberal Republican who siphoned off Democratic support in a Republican landslide year. Most damningly, you can't beat somebody with nobody. There is no Republican in the state with the stature and appeal to win a statewide federal race.

You can cherry-pick data to give hope where there is none, but the preponderance of the evidence is on the side of people who see Gillibrand or another Democrat winning reelection easily just as Republicans, appointed or not, cruise to election in Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah Senate seats.

I am well aware of the demise of the Nassau County Republican machine.  I also understand the demographic shifts in the state.  But I don't see Gillibrand or another Democrat who wins the seat after what would likely be a brutal primary, pitting NYC against the suburbs and Upstate, as winning reelection easily.  Heck, New York CITY has elected a Republican mayor in the last four mayoral elections.  A Republican winning statewide can't be out of the question.

There are two Republicans with the stature and appeal to win a statewide federal race, if they want to and the stars are aligned after the Democrats beat up each other in a bloody primary - George Pataki and Rudolph Giuliani.  Heck, even Peter King has a shot against the likes of Maloney or even Gillibrand if she is painted in the primary as a gun nut who is too conservative for New York.

[cinyc]

How is Feingold not considered safe?   He won his 2004 race by 11 points (though it has been closer in the past).  Who is expected to run against him?  Anyone well-known statewide?

[cinyc]

Murray safe and Blumenthal only clear advantage?  That seems backwards.

[cinyc]

tossup CO,IL,FL,PA,OH
Tilt republican NH,MO,NV,IND,Del,ARK,ND
Safe CA,WA,CT but potentially to be competetive

The only way CT becomes competitive is if Blumenthal really, really implodes.  Even Blumenthal's misstatement of his military service isn't enough of an implosion to make it a potential Republican pickup.  He either needs Coakley-like campaign ineptness or a Spitzer-like scandal to become vulnerable - and probably both.   There's a less than 5% chance of that happening.   I think CA, WA and WI would fall before CT does.