As before, there is no real good reason for me to discount the poll (sampling-wise). The reason to discount it because it doesn't match the others.
One thing to keep in mind is that Minnesota was competitive in 2000 and 2004. Bush lost it by 2.5 points in 2000 and 3.5 points in 2004. It's not as much of a red state as most think.
1992: "One thing to keep in mind is that Vermont has voted Republican in every election since 1964. Polls showing Clinton ahead by above his national lead are obviously wrong. Vermont is not a competitive state; it's a Republican state. Bush will win Vermont."
I didn't say the poll is right or wrong. It is what it is. Nor did I say McCain will win the state.
What I did say is that Minnesota isn't as red a state as most think. It's no Illinois, New York or California. It's the Democrat equivalent of Nevada or Colorado in 2004. Obama +3 is plausible if the race is close. It's hard to tell how close SUSA thinks the national race is, since they don't poll it. I suspect they'd have it closer than many national pollsters.
