Is he on crack? Or, am I missing something?
Check this out:
Obama Ahead in FL, MO, NV, NC, OH & VA
UTICA, New York - Reuters/Zogby telephone surveys of eight battleground states show Democrat Barack Obama ahead in six. While his lead over Republican John McCain is less than three points in Florida, Missouri and North Carolina, these results still point out the daunting task McCain faces to reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election.
The surveys were conducted from Oct. 23-26. Sample sizes in each state ranged from 600-603, with a margin of error of +/-4.1%.
In addition to the states listed above, Obama also leads in Ohio, Nevada and Virginia. McCain leads in Indiana and West Virginia.
Pollster John Zogby: "McCain is well within striking distance in each of the six states in which he trails. None of Obama's leads are outside the margin of error. [/u] However, unless McCain can take one of the big states won by John Kerry in 2004, such as Pennsylvania, he needs to win these six states. He might be able to survive the loss of Nevada, but probably not any of the others."
Here are the states where Obama leads, with each state's Electoral votes shown:
Virginia
13
Obama
52.0
McCain
44.8
Other/Not Sure
3.2
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1612
You're missing something. Zogby's right (this is probably the first and last time I'll say that).
The MOE is for BOTH the Obama and McCain poll numbers, so assuming a MOE of +/- 4.1, in Virginia:
Obama could be polling from 47.9% to 56.1%; and
McCain could be polling from 40.7% to 48.9%.
48.9%>47.9%. So McCain could be leading Obama. The actual probability of that happening given these numbers is pretty low, though - about 3.6%, by my calculations.