MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[cinyc]

Wait wtf is this my poll from earlier? I can't really tell since I'm on my phone.

The topline numbers are identical, so, maybe.  The crosstabs seem to be different, though.

[cinyc]

What methodology is Google using compared to Gravis?

Gravis is a telephone poll (landline and cell phone).  The cell phone part of the sample is done by a link to a webpage, I think. 

Google Surveys are internet-only.  They basically send out their poll questions as ads on newspaper and other websites that people must answer (or skip) to read content.  Google also asks some people the question via their pay-credits-for-answers survey app. 

There are tons of problems with the Google Survey methodology - from the fact that the cheaper one-question methodology doesn't allow for screening questions to low sample sizes.  The Google Survey polls of this race have been all over the place, from Quist +17 to Gianforte +10.  They're not very good.  Yet, defying logic, I'm probably going to purchase another one before the election.

That doesn't mean Gravis is a great pollster, though.  They're not.

[cinyc]

You won't see any good pollster polling this race before the election, so don't get your hopes up. The more confusion there is, the more interesting election night will be, I guess.

I wouldn't trust any poll in this race. My prediction will be based on gut feeling alone.

I still think the Lee Newpapers might have Mason Dixon conduct a poll in the next few weeks, like they usually do for Montana races of import.  Or, at least I'm hoping that they will.

[cinyc]

What methodology is Google using compared to Gravis?

Gravis is a telephone poll (landline and cell phone).  The cell phone part of the sample is done by a link to a webpage, I think.  

Google Surveys are internet-only.  They basically send out their poll questions as ads on newspaper and other websites that people must answer (or skip) to read content.  Google also asks some people the question via their pay-credits-for-answers survey app.  

There are tons of problems with the Google Survey methodology - from the fact that the cheaper one-question methodology doesn't allow for screening questions to low sample sizes.  The Google Survey polls of this race have been all over the place, from Quist +17 to Gianforte +10.  They're not very good.  Yet, defying logic, I'm probably going to purchase another one before the election.

That doesn't mean Gravis is a great pollster, though.  They're not.

So, why buy a Google poll then? How much cheaper is it than polling done by an established polling organization?

I've never priced a regular poll, so I can't tell you.  But the Google one-question state polls are generally 15 cents per respondent.  So a 500-respondent poll can be done for $75.  It's relatively affordable.   (And there is - or at least was - a coupon offer for a user's first poll, making it even cheaper for your first poll).   Multiple question polls cost 10x more, which is out of my price range.

RRH says Montana requires a live operator make calls (instead of robodialing), which increases the cost of a telephone poll there.  That's one other reason we're not seeing more Montana polls.

[cinyc]

Is this election all mail-in? I remember there was a kerfuffle over whether it would be or not, but I never heard the resolution.

No.  A lot of the vote will be by mail (as it usually is in Montana), but there will be physical polls open next Thursday, May 25.

[cinyc]

I think any outcome from Quist +5 to Pianoforte +5 is possible, but I don't think Republicans should give up on this race yet.

Cinyc, can you send me a link of your GCS poll so that I can follow the results? I feel like I'm going to go crazy if I don't see a public poll before election day, haha.

I haven't put any GCS poll into the field yet.  I'm waiting for the weekend to start it.

I just found this poll it's old and a google survey but is it any good

https://surveys.google.com/reporting/survey?survey=fotq254zv734n2hrx76hgxtbjm

May 8-9th

Quist: 34.5%
Gianforte: 29.8%
Libertarian: 6.8%
not voting 28.9%

of course the error bars are like ten points wide

That sounds like Castro's survey, which we discussed in detail last week.

[cinyc]

As Quist Breaks Out, Decades Old Lawsuit Sheds Light on Montana Democrat’s Marriage and Career
Montana Democrat's account of surgery, preexisting condition challenged by doctor, legal records show
Washington Free Beacon/Brent Scher
May 16, 2017 2:00PM

Another oppo dump on Quist.  The doctor in the medical malpractice case Quist has used as part of his narrative about why he didn't pay his taxes alleged that Quist had genital herpes, tested positive for tuberculosis, and smoked pot.

[cinyc]

I'm surprised they were even allowed to disclose sensitive medical information like that.

Quist sued the doctor who performed his gall bladder surgery for malpractice.  Pre-existing conditions are arguably relevant to that.  It's all in the court filings.  Quist tried to get the allegations thrown out, but it was never resolved because he and the doctor settled the lawsuit.

The other takeaway from the article is that Quist claims the allegedly botched gall bladder surgery ruined his music career, but the defense's expert argued otherwise - and his own expert was so inept that he never heard Quist play in person.

This surgery is a part of Quist's narrative - he skipped paying his taxes because of the surgery.  But the article points out that he and his wife earned six figures in 1994.

[cinyc]

The Lee Newspapers' version of the story doesn't mention the alleged herpes.  Quist himself had no comment (though his campaign spokesman sent an e-mail), and cancelled an interview with them after learning he'd be asked about his marijuana use and medical history.  From the Helena Independent Record:

Quist declines to discuss personal marijuana use, health record

[cinyc]

To clarify, I would say there is a 20ish% chance he could win, but if it does it would mean that the national environment at the moment is as good for Dems as the early 1930's.  Actually, 1866 with the parties reversed would a better comparison as that was much more about presidential scandals/incompetence and less about the economy.

But I'm not convinced we're there and Dems now have quite a history of getting too cocky about Trump backlash.

There doesn't need to be a 1930's like environment for a Democrat to win a statewide race in Montana.  Montana has a history of electing some statewide Democrats.  Quist's chances of winning are far higher than 20%.  There's a decent chance he can pull this out - probably not quite 50%, but close.

[cinyc]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

[cinyc]

Are there any new Google polls coming out before the 25th?

As of right now, I'm planning on putting one into the field this weekend.  I might not if we get a credible poll between now and then.  But, that's doubtful, given we haven't seen a good poll yet.

When do you think you'll release it, Monday next week?

When it's done, which is usually in 2-4 days after it is put in the field.  If I start the poll on Saturday, probably Monday or Tuesday.  If I start it on Sunday, probably Tuesday or Wednesday.

I haven't decided which day to put it into the field yet.  I do want to make sure that I get at least one weekday poll day, though, as the weekend and weekday Internet audiences might be different.

[cinyc]

Gravis doesn't have any more polls coming out of the MT-AL special election:
https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/865008631296663552

[cinyc]

Rob Quist can do this!

In reality, Gianforte will defeat this Socialist by Association by at least 6%.

I voted for Bernie in the primary. Am I a socialist?

Also, this is strange:

Josh Kraushaar @HotlineJosh
Sr GOP operative, tracking the two specials, notably more concerned about MONTANA than GEORGIA.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/865262696522014720

I would be more concerned about an election being held next week than an election being held next month, too.  There's less time to gin up support.

[cinyc]

As of 5/17 (vs. the day before):

County (2016 Presidential vote, Gubernatorial vote) % returned

Cascade (voted for Trump by 22%, Bullock by 10%) 58.9% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Flathead (voted for Trump by 36%, Gianforte by 15%) 58.3% of mail-ins returned (+1.8 )

Gallatin (voted for Clinton by 1%, Bullock by 15%) 54.7% of mail-ins returned (+3.5)

Lake (voted for Trump by 21%, Bullock by 1%) 65.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.1)

Lewis & Clark (voted for Trump by 7%, Bullock by 23%) 63.8% of mail-ins returned (+1.6)

Missoula (voted for Clinton by 16%, Bullock by 34%) 53.4% of mail-ins returned (+1.7)

Ravalli (voted for Trump by 38% Gianforte by 14%) 67.1% of mail-ins returned (+2.5)

Silver Bow (voted for Clinton by 14%, Bullock by 44%) 60.6% of mail-ins returned (+2.8 )

Yellowstone (voted for Trump by 27%, Gianforte by 1%) 61.9% of mail-ins returned (+1.9)

Statewide: 59.6% of mail-ins returned

When is the deadline for receiving mail-in ballots?  Does it all have to arrive by mail, or are there places people can deposit them on election day, like in Oregon?

[cinyc]

Gianforte on donating to suspected white nationalist: 'I was unaware of some of his views'
Missoulian/JAYME FRASER

This story is in the Montana media today.  Apparently, Gianforte donated money to all Republican state house candidates last cycle, including one or two who the Southern Poverty Law Center and liberal Montana bloggers think are white nationalists. 

My views on the SPLC are fairly well known -for reasons better explained by this recent article in the Federalist, the SPLC is a partisan Democratic group masquerading as an anti-hate group whose word about things should not be taken at face value.  They tend to label all conservatives as hate groups.

[cinyc]

The candidates Gianforte donated to were "diversity is code for white genocide" nutjobs. I know in some conservative circles that position is no longer taboo but to most normal people it's pretty racist.

Source?  It says that nowhere in the article.   And if your source is the SPLC, as I said, I never take anything they claim at face value.  They're ultra-partisan Democratic actors who are like the boy who cried wolf.

[cinyc]

Rob Quist @RobQuistforMT

**UPDATE** Saturday's Billings rally with @BernieSanders has moved to MetraPark, due to overwhelming excitement for Rob! #BigSkyBern

The Missoula rally was moved to a bigger venue, too.

[cinyc]

OMG Quist smoked pot!!!111!!!!11!!!!!(one)!!!!!!11

He's ducking the marijuana and health questions, instead of taking them head on.  That doesn't look good.  He intially lied about his citation for smoking pot, then immediately hung up on the reporter.  His spokeswoman had to set the record straight. 

Quist should have taken the Clinton route and just admitted it.  What hippie musician in the 70s didn't smoke pot?

[cinyc]

Yeah. I think this is definitely his lack of experience and charisma showing. What would you do if someone asked you out of the blue if you'd done something illegal?

It's not out of the blue, though.  The marijuana story has been circulating for a few days now.  Quist was definitely aware of it.  He reportedly ducked interviews yesterday because reporters wanted to ask him about his marijuana and health history.  

Quist should have been prepared to answer the question - yes, I smoked pot and got cited for it in 1971.  It was the 70s.  Who didn't smoke pot in the 70s?

The problem may be that Quist has been recently smoking pot, which would be more controversial.  That's the next logical question any reporter would ask.  According to the Free Beacon article, Quist admitted to smoking pot on his medical forms in the 90s, too.

[cinyc]

House Majority Pac (D) is making a last minute $25K TV ad buy for Montana. Probably just so they don't get accused of not doing more. The DCCC before this had only spent $28K, while outside Republicans have put in more than $4 million.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/18/montana-special-election-dem-super-pac-ads-238576

Just enough money to try to say that they did something with a straight face. Sad!

A $25,000 ad buy will go pretty far in Montana.  It's not Atlanta.

[cinyc]

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

[cinyc]

I mean honestly, look at some polls.  The only people who are against legalization are hardline social conservatives, who are becoming smaller as a portion of the voting population each year.  And even the evangelical crowd is warming up to pot faster than, say, gay marriage.

And Montana isn't even in the Bible Belt.

A majority of seniors still oppose legalizing marijuana.  Seniors are the most likely group to turn out in a special election.

A majority, but that's hardly unanimous.  But if Piano Man wants to make pot an issue, that's fine by me.

It's the Montana press that's making pot an issue, not Gianforte.  But you're viewing pot use in isolation.  Quist's marijuana use plays into the irresponsible hippie cowboy narrative that the Gianforte campaign seemingly has been trying to build against him, as does today's Lee Newspapers article regarding apartments that Quist or Quist's family rented out on property owned by them without paying the proper amount of property taxes.

[cinyc]

I feel like you're grasping at straws at this point: no one is focusing on "local factors" in this race. The three weeks have been very tumultuous and voters aren't likely to care about Quist's personal problems when the national media is laser-focused on Russia and, previously, on the AHCA. I found out that hard way in 2010 just how little local factors mattered in Idaho when 25% of the voters on my GOTV list said that they'd be voting for Labrador to kick out Pelosi and 2010 seems quaint in retrospect.

Quist might lose but I doubt it will be due to these nothingburger stories.

Candidate quality matters.  If the now trending section is any indication, the most-read articles on the Lee Newspapers' websites are these stories about Quist and Gianforte's personal problems, not the AP copy about what is going on in Washington.  That's not to say that what's going on in Washington doesn't matter - but that local issues and candidate quality matter, too.

[cinyc]

This post got me thinking, how much of a percentage of the US voting population are Silents now?  That number has got to be declining... kind of rapidly now.  Morbid as it sounds.

If I've done the math right, based on the 2016 November CPS Data, about 13% of the VAP was 70+ in 2016, which roughly correlates with the Silents.  But they made up about 15.8% of all 2016 voters.  In Montana, their percentage is higher - 15.2% of the VAP and 17.8% of 2016 voters.  

The 70+s outnumber baby boom seniors (65-69) by roughly 2:1 in the 65+ cohort.