49 states of county map predictions

[cinyc]

What's the problem with predicting Alaska?  No "county" map or not enough past "county" data?  I think I can solve both issues.

[cinyc]

What's the problem with predicting Alaska?  No "county" map or not enough past "county" data?  I think I can solve both issues.

Yeah, no map on the site to base it off.

Try using paint or whatever program you use with this blank Alaska County Equivalent map (click on the image for a larger map from the gallery):

[cinyc]

Is anyone going to jump down my throat if I post a county map based on the current 2-way polling and nationwide PVI?   Can we just agree that it's a map suggesting a uniform swing and trend, and not necessarily my prediction?  It might make a good baseline for others to work off of.

[cinyc]

Is anyone going to jump down my throat if I post a county map based on the current 2-way polling and nationwide PVI?   Can we just agree that it's a map suggesting a uniform swing and trend, and not necessarily my prediction?  It might make a good baseline for others to work off of.

That on the other hand would be quite useful.

Assuming I've done this right, here it is (click on the picture for a larger view in the Gallery):


The 10/15 margin for the 2-Party RCP Average is Clnton+6.7.  Removing the undecideds increases that to about Clinton+7.4.  The map assumes the national two-party vote will be 53.7 Clinton, 46.3 Trump.  The National PVI I calculated for each county in this thread is then used to adjust each county.

Obviously, this assumes no swing or trend among counties, which is unrealistic.  Thus, please don't consider this a projection - just a baseline to start launching your own projections.

Edited to add: Note: I made a math error on my initial maps.  A few counties have flipped.

[cinyc]

It looks like you're using 3 shades for each candidate instead of 5 or 6 like in the scale. Is it safe to assume that the scale is:

50.0-66.7
66.7-83.4
83.4-100?

It shouldn't be, but I have to check. Perhaps I just did the calculations wrong.
 
Despite the key,  nothing is in the 40-50 range because it's a map of the 2 party percentage.  In theory, most counties should fall in the 50-60, 60-70 and 70-80 range.  But I'll check later.

[cinyc]

It looks like you're using 3 shades for each candidate instead of 5 or 6 like in the scale. Is it safe to assume that the scale is:

50.0-66.7
66.7-83.4
83.4-100?

Yeah, it looks like I screwed up the math by halving the PVI instead of just adding it to the two-party D and R percentage.  I'll make new maps.

[cinyc]

I fixed the map.  A few counties have flipped, particularly in Maine and New Hampshire.  If you looked at it before, please look at it again.

[cinyc]

I made a few maps based on a demographic model I made.

What assumptions are you making in your model?  Do you weigh by educational status?  Sex?  Age?

[cinyc]

Updated PVI uniform swing map, based on today's 2-Party RCP Average (click on the picture for a larger view in the Gallery):


The 11/5 margin for the 2-Party RCP Average is Clnton +1.7.  Removing the undecideds increases that to about Clinton +1.9.  The map assumes the national two-party vote will be 50.9 Clinton, 40.1 Trump.  The National PVI I calculated for each county in this thread is then used to adjust each county.

Obviously, this assumes the RCP average is correct and there no swing or trend among counties, which is unrealistic.  Thus, please don't consider this a projection - just a baseline to start launching your own projections.

[cinyc]

Trump will win Putnam County north of New York City.  It's a reliably Republican county.