Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[cinyc]

Does anyone have a breakdown of the Alaska votes?  The NY Times was supposed to report by House District, but their map is blank. It would be interesting to see how the Native Alaskans voted compared to the rest of the state. From how the results came in, it looks like it was more or less the same.

[cinyc]

Looks like 73% of the vote is in in Alaska.  Do we know where these precincts are?  Neither CNN nor NYT seem to have regional breakdowns.

I can't find any regional breakdown. 

Like the Alaska Republicans, Alaska Democrats only had a handful of precincts for the whole state.  Unlike the Republicans, there were fewer precincts in urban areas and more in rural areas.  All of Anchorage other than Eagle River had only 1 precinct, for example.  Presumably, they were caucusing by House District, but there are no HD results on the AP's website (or CNN and the NYT, which get their results from the AP), or even Decision Desk HQ.

[cinyc]

Such a reverse sweep isn't happening and you know it. NY, PA, CA, MD, DE and NJ aren't 90%+ White so Bernie won't win there. I don't give a sh*t about Clinton losing Alaska, Montana or Idaho lol.

Alaska is only 62% non Hispanic white. Bernie is probably winning the Native population big time.

Sanders has never had a problem winning Native American voters in the primaries.

[cinyc]

Such a reverse sweep isn't happening and you know it. NY, PA, CA, MD, DE and NJ aren't 90%+ White so Bernie won't win there. I don't give a sh*t about Clinton losing Alaska, Montana or Idaho lol.

Alaska is only 62% non Hispanic white. Bernie is probably winning the Native population big time.

Sanders has never had a problem winning Native American voters in the primaries.

I haven't looked at precinct data, but she won Apache and Navajo counties like huge margins in Arizona, both heavily Native American.

Yeah, Clinton might do slightly better with Native Americans than Whites, but it's not like the differences she has with blacks and Hispanics.  Navajo County was more or less in line with the rest of Arizona.  Clinton performed about 10 points better in Apache County than the rest of the state.  In Oklahoma, Clinton barely won Osage County, Oklahoma, 48-46 in a state she lost 52-42.  On the other hand, Sanders swept the Indian Township Voting District in Maine and won Thurston County, Nebraska.  Plus, Clinton actually slightly underperformed in Robeson County, North Carolina, which has no reservation but a lot of Native Americans (Sanders underperformed a bit there, too, though).  

Native Americans probably vote at most 10 points more for Clinton than the rest of the state, and usually less.

Edited to add:  Looking closer at Idaho, Clinton barely won Lewis County there in a state she lost 78-21.  But Sanders won the other counties in Northern Idaho with Indian Reservations, including Benwah.  Lewis is 100% on the Nez Pierce Reservation, though, while the other counties aren't.

[cinyc]

Alaska looks like pretty uniform win. No doubt Bernie won every demographic in a landslide.

There are some regional variations.  Clinton did best (but still lost) in areas in and around Downtown Anchorage.  She lost 2-1 instead of 3-1 or worse.  The 4 Alaska Native Bush HDs 37-40 went to Sanders more or less in line with the rest of the state given the constraints caused by having a different number of delegates, except for HD 40 in the north (Barrow, Kotzebue), which was unanimous for Sanders.  There were other HDs where all the delegates went to Sanders, 1.5 in the Republican-heavy Mat-Su Borough (HD 12 is in both Anchorage and Mat-Su), 1.5 in Anchorage, 1 in Fairbanks, the railbelt interior HD 6, and the Kodiak-Cordova HD 32.

[cinyc]

More Hawaii (not sure if this has already been mentioned):

House District 5 is along the southwestern Kona Coast of the big island of Hawaii, from South Point (the southernmost point of the 50 U.S. states) to just south of downtown Kailua-Kona.  Assuming they haven't changed the precinct numbers from 2014, the highest precinct numbers are closest to Kailua-Kona.

[cinyc]

How legit is this?
https://twitter.com/LarryWebsite/status/713934959195656192
Sanders supposedly winning 104 out of 107 precincts counted. 247 precincts in total.

It's probably based on the Google Docs spreadsheet that is aggregating Twitter results.  It's not really 104 of 107 precincts, though, as some results are by House District instead of precinct.  Clinton likely won more than 1 precinct in each House District to win the whole district.  Somewhere around 98 of 107 is probably more accurate.

[cinyc]

That spreadsheet has Clinton down 81-19 in Washington. She's down 72-27 with 90% reporting; that spreadsheet is BS

It's based on partial, self-reported results reported on Twitter, which could have a pro-Sanders bias.  Not every Washington caucus location results were reported on Twitter.