Republican Virgin Islands Caucus results thread (11am-5pm ET)

[cinyc]

In the ongoing John Yob residency saga, a USVI judge granted a temporary restraining order to make the Yobs and Eilons registered voters, at least for now:
http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2016/03/john_yob_virgin_islands.html

[cinyc]

Polls should be closed now.  Robert Yoon of CNN says in this tweet that results aren't expected for another two hours or so.  How can it take that long to count a couple of hundred votes?

Some of the votes might be absentees, which have to be verified.  And there are about 40 delegate candidates on the ballot, which might make it take longer to count.

[cinyc]

Anyone want to bet that the Yobs somehow engineered a victory with absentee ballots?

[cinyc]

Speaking of the yob.  From Twitter:
John Yob ‏@strategic  26m26 minutes ago
2 caucuses in USVI.  St Thomas/John results are in.  Looking great so far but St Croix 3x the votes.

[cinyc]

So who's winning?

If Theresa Schanfarber's number is 29 instead of 20, it's 3 Cruz, 1 Trump, 2 uncommitted, including 1 Yob.  If it's 20, it's 2 Cruz, 1 Trump, 3 uncommitted, including both Yobs, I think.

[cinyc]

Just counting the votes (assuming Theresa Schanfarber got 20 votes) it's:

Uncommitted 199 (44.6%)
Cruz 124 (27.8%)
Trump 62 (13.9%)
Carson 47 (10.5%)
Rubio 14 (3.1%)

Total Votes 446, for an average of 74.33 voters, if everyone voted for 6 (which is doubtful).

[cinyc]

John Yob ‏@strategic  29s29 seconds ago
I am proud to be the top vote getter in the USVI caucus.  Thanks everyone.

[cinyc]

Taniel ‏@Taniel  2m2 minutes ago
Got off the phone with the Virgin Islands GOP: *ALL* elected delegates were uncommitted. No presidential candidate won a delegate.

[cinyc]

Confirmed by Decision Desk HQ:

Decision Desk HQ ‏@DecisionDeskHQ  47s48 seconds ago
Wow. Per our source, Herb Schoenbohm, Party Vice Chair:
All six go to UNCOMMITTED #VIcaucus

[cinyc]

If 4 of the delegates elected are the Yobs and the Eilons, whether they serve may come down to a lawsuit determining whether they were registered voters at the time of the caucus.

[cinyc]

Under the 2016 USVI Delegate Rules:

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So candidates 7-12 potentially matter here.

As to replacement of Delegates by Alternates:

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And on disputes:

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[cinyc]

According to John Yob, his wife Erica was elected as a delegate, too.  And someone else on Twitter claims:

Dennis Lennox ‏@dennislennox  27m27 minutes ago
#VIcaucus UPDATE: Entire #USVI #GOP leadership was defeated by @strategic's uncommitted slate, #VirginIslands source says. #clevelandbound

That probably means the Eilons won as well.  But I haven't seen any actual results from St. Croix yet.

[cinyc]

John Yob just tweeted a pic of his tally sheet:

Delegates
1. John Yob - 131
2. Gwendolyn Hall Brady - 129
3. Warren Cole - 124
4. Erica Yob - 123
5. George Logan - 120
6. Lindsey Eilon - 117

Alternates
7. David Johnson - 82
8. Valerie Stiles (Rubio) - 72
9. Andrea Moeckel - 67
10. Humberto O'Neal (Rubio) - 63
11. Steven Hardy (Trump) - 52
T-12. Robert Schanfarber (Cruz) - 47
T-12. April Newland - 47

Cruz really bombed on St. Croix.  Rubio cleaned up there.  Cruz's delegate and April Newland will draw cards to see who is the last alternate.

If the two Yobs and one Eilon are kicked off the slate, 14 is Garfield Doran (Uncommitted).  15 is Joshua Schanfarber (Cruz).

[cinyc]

Raw votes by candidate's delegates:

Uncommitted 1,063 (65.3%)
Cruz 191 (11.7%)
Rubio 161 (9.9%)
Carson 108 (6.6%)
Trump 104 (6.4%)

I'm not sure how realisticidealist calculated his alternative slate numbers.  But Cruz (6) and Carson (10) had more delegates than the other two (3 each), so the per-delegate percentage for them is much lower.

[cinyc]

So if the first ballot is extremely close, a couple of nobodies from the Virgin Islands could provide the tiebreak and decide if the contention is contested or not?

Coupled with a bunch of nobodies from American Samoa, probably Guam and North Dakota plus 5 from Louisiana and any other state that provides for unpledged delegates, whether that be initially or after a losing candidate releases them.