CBS News Announces Debate Criteria

[cinyc]

Candidates must meet one of the following criteria:

1) Place among the top five candidates ranked according to the popular vote in the New Hampshire Republican primary on Feb. 9, 2016;

2) have placed among the top three candidates ranked according to the popular vote in the Iowa Republican caucuses on Feb. 2, 2016;

3) place among the top five candidates in an average of national and South Carolina Republican presidential polls conducted over a four-week period starting on Jan. 15, 2016 and recognized by CBS News; and receive a minimum of 3 percent in the Iowa, New Hampshire results or the South Carolina or national polls. To be included, polls must be conducted and released to the public before 12 p.m. ET on Feb. 12, 2016.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/criteria-for-cbs-news-republican-debate/

So this means Trump, Cruz, and Rubio are definitely in. Kasich and Bush are probably in. Ben Carson might be in if he doesn't collapse in South Carolina after tonight. But Christie could very well be out? Fiorina and Gilmore, screwed once again.

If I correctly undestand, they will include candidates who got >3% in NH. So I think Christie, Fiorina and Carson are pretty safe.

It sounds like a candidate needs to be top 5 in the poll average AND get >3% in NH or Iowa or those polls.  So getting 3% alone won't cut it, nor would being 5th in the poll average if you don't get over 3% in NH, Iowa or the polls.  That would exclude Gilmore if all but 4 candidates drop out.

[cinyc]

More simply put, since many don't seem to understand, these are the criteria.


Fulfill one of the following three criteria:

1. Finish in the top 3 in Iowa.

2. Finish in the top 5 in New Hampshire.

3. Poll in the top 5 in South Carolina and fulfill one of the following four sub-criteria:
a. Poll 3% or higher nationally.
b. Finish 3% or higher in Iowa.
c. Finish 3% or higher in New Hampshire.
d. Poll 3% or higher in South Carolina.

Making the contenders:
Trump (1, 2, 3a, 3b, 3c, 3d)
Rubio (1, 2, 3a, 3b, 3c, 3d)
Cruz (1, 2, 3a, 3b, 3c, 3d)
Bush (2, 3a, 3c, 3d)
Carson (3a, 3b, 3d)
Kasich (2)

Option three is poll in the top 5 in an average of national and South Carolina polls and fulfill one of a-d.  It's not just South Carolina polls that will be taken into account.