Democratic Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[cinyc]

FYI, clicking on a county on the Microsoft map will give you precinct-level results there.

[cinyc]

79 precincts left.

22 of those are in Polk County (Des Moines), which Clinton is winning, but not necessarily in areas that Clinton is winning.  The rest are scattered throughout the state.

[cinyc]

Not really that goes by precincts left by results in which the county was leading.  Tht is easy enough to figure out.  The question, especially regarding Polk, is where in Polk are the remaining precincts?

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/county/19153

It looks like about 12 of the 22 outstanding precincts are in Des Moines proper, 3 in Ankeny, 2 in West Des Moines, and the rest scattered in more rural/suburban areas.

[cinyc]

Are there exact precinct results available anywhere?  Or will there be?

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Click on a county to get a precinct-level result map of that county.

[cinyc]

Are there exact precinct results available anywhere?  Or will there be?

https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

Click on a county to get a precinct-level result map of that county.

It's just a percentage in each precinct.  This isn't the most useful, though I may be able to reverse engineer some results with some effort.

Yeah, the Microsoft site doesn't even list the number of delegate equivalents per precinct, just percentage.  Maybe you can contact Microsoft to see if they have anything different that is downloadable.

[cinyc]

Come on black hawk county!

Hancock looks kinda threatening; they still have 20% out and it's for Hillary in the 60s so far.

Precincts 5 and 10 are out.  Clinton won 6 of the other 8 precincts, with the other two being ties.  I have no clue how populated those two precincts are, though.

[cinyc]

One Hancock County precinct goes to Clinton. 11 precincts to go.

Looking at the precinct-level map, I think that precinct (Precinct 10) was a tie.

[cinyc]

Fremont County - Riverton
Polk County - Des Moines 15
Polk County - Des Moines 42
Boone County - Rural Precinct 1
Iowa County - Fillmore/Greene
Tama County - Indian Settlement
Muscatine County - Fruitland One-City
Black Hawk County - WL 3-2
Black Hawk County - WL 5-1
Hancock County - Precinct 5
Kossuth County - CR 1

Indian Settlement should be interesting.  It's the Mesquakie Indian Settlement, home to Meskwaki Indians of the Fox and Sac tribe.

[cinyc]

Anybody have the numbers for the black majority precincts?  Same for Hispanic ones if they exist.

I don't know where the black or Hispanic majority precincts are, but Sanders won the Mesquakie Indian Settlement in Tama County big, getting 83% of the precinct's county delegates to Clinton's 17%.

[cinyc]

Eyeballing the Polk County election results precinct map and the racial map on Dave's Redistricting App, it looks like Clinton won the black plurality districts north of Downtown Des Moines.  If I've correlated the maps properly, what's probably the most black Des Moines district, Des Moines 36, went the most to Clinton, 75-25.  Surrounding precincts were closer, but Clinton won them.

[cinyc]

The black majority precincts on the northeast side of Waterloo, Black Hawk County also went heavily for Clinton.  Clinton won 100% of the delegates in one likely African American-majority precinct, and 70-80% of the delegates in two others.  So yes, there is evidence that African Americans broke heavily for Clinton in Iowa.

[cinyc]

Are there any Hispanic-majority or Asian-majority precincts? Because the entrance polls said she won non-whites by only about 25%, but the results from black precincts obviously cast some doubt on those numbers.

There are some Hispanic plurality and perhaps majority precincts in Des Moines and meat packing towns like Marshalltown, but I doubt they are majority Hispanic CVAP, let alone majority Hispanic by registered Democrats.  That's especially true in the meat packing towns, where many of the Hispanics are illegal aliens.

The precincts in east Marshalltown with a relatively high Hispanic population (for Iowa, anyway) went to Sanders, but I suspect Hispanic turnout was poor.  The precinct lines have changed since DRA's map, so I can't figure out exactly where the few Hispanic plurality precincts are in Des Moines, but they appear to be either a tie or maybe slight Clinton wins, depending on which precinct is the Hispanic one.

The majority-Asian precinct, Buchanan Township, Jefferson County, was a tie.  The Asians who live there are largely male Indians in their 20s, largely living in group quarters (i.e. dorms).  They likely attend the Maharishi University of Management, and are overwhelmingly foreigners who can't vote in U.S. elections.  So the precinct might not even be majority Asian CVAP.  There also is a precinct near the University of Iowa in Iowa City that is about 30% Asian. If I found the right precinct on both maps, it too was a tie.  Asians are far too dispersed throughout other precincts to make any meaningful analysis.