NY-01: Siena: Rep. Bishop (D) up 10

[cinyc]

I don't like this poll.  It doesn't show a Republican ahead so it is junk.  24% of Republicans are voting for Bishop?  This isn't California, it's Suffolk County, New York.  That's not going to happen.   Plus, Newsday is a biased liberal source that can't be trusted.   And Siena is a horrible poster.  /sarcasm

More seriously, Cuomo is up 52-32-6 with 9% undecided.  There's not much love for the Green candidate in Eastern Suffolk County, either, compared to Upstate.

Crosstabs here.

[cinyc]

I don't like this poll.  It doesn't show a Republican ahead so it is junk.  24% of Republicans are voting for Bishop?  This isn't California, it's Suffolk County, New York.  That's not going to happen.   Plus, Newsday is a biased liberal source that can't be trusted.   And Siena is a horrible poster.  /sarcasm

More seriously, Cuomo is up 52-32-6 with 9% undecided.  There's not much love for the Green candidate in Eastern Suffolk County, either, compared to Upstate.

Crosstabs here.

Last time I checked Bishop didn't threaten to a throw a reporter off a balcony and then get indicted.

If that happened, yes, it would be absolutely silly to show 24% of Republicans backing him.

see the /sarcasm.

Well, IceSpear is right that my sarcasm was partially directed at his comment in the NY-11 thread, but more generally directed toward those who try to unskew polls just because they don't like the result.  Unskewing polls because of supposedly erroneous crosstabs didn't work in 2012.  It's not going to work in 2014, either.

I take polls at face value for what they are - a snapshot of the race at a particular time by a particular pollster using that pollster's particular methodology.  Some pollsters might be better than others, but trends in a particular pollster's polls at least tells us something about the general direction of the race, even if they're the worst pollster in the world.  I'm not doubting a poll's veracity because of the TV network or newspaper that sponsored it.  And I don't treat any pollster as the gold standard.  Doing well in 2012 doesn't mean their polls will do well in 2014.  Mason-Dixon fell from grace last cycle.  Who's to say PPP won't tank this cycle or Rasmussen won't improve?  We won't know until election day.

Internals and internals done for an interest group are generally suspect, though, because they often skew their release to get the result they want.

[cinyc]

If Columbia County, and Hudson in particular, is at all representative of Upstate NY that certainly rings a bell. Green is the dominate religion up here, and I mean to use that term - it's akin to theological, as opposed to anything remotely data based driven, or well based on trying to balance in a way I think at all reasonable, the costs versus benefits of going green. In the meantime, in Hudson we pay more in utility bills, because of a self imposed it must be from 75% renewable energy sources mandate. Sure it squeezes many pay check to pay check folks, but hey, it's respecting the planet on which we are so privileged to stride.

Columbia County may be the most Green county Upstate, but I don't think it is typical.  It certainly is one of the more Democratic counties in Upstate New York, unlike most ruralish counties in Central and Western New York.  It has some Upstate cousins, like Tompkins (Ithaca) and to a lesser extent, Ulster and Greene Counties across the river, but it's somewhat in a league all its own.