HI 2014 Congressional Elections

[cinyc]

Hurricane Iselle is on path to strike Hawaii on Thursday going into Friday, albeit as a weakened tropical storm.  That could be a real wildcard that could cause lower turnout in hardest-hit areas or even some blackouts, making Saturday's election more difficult to administer.

[cinyc]

Hurricane Iselle is on path to strike Hawaii on Thursday going into Friday, albeit as a weakened tropical storm.  That could be a real wildcard that could cause lower turnout in hardest-hit areas or even some blackouts, making Saturday's election more difficult to administer.

Nah, from what I heard it won't effect it. Hawaii News Now had an article about how the Hurricane will miss most of Hawaii's main islands, but they took it down.

The Big Island is smack in the middle of the National Hurricane Center's 5-day cone, albeit as a tropical storm, not a hurricane.  At a minimum, it still should bring a lot of rain to the islands.  Perhaps not damaging winds, though.

Hawaii News Now currently says Category 4 Hurricane Iselle maintains strength, path to Hawaii

[cinyc]

There's now a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for the Big Island.  Hurricane Iselle is still on track to hit the Big Island on Thursday and possibly affect the other islands Thursday into Friday.  It is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm before hitting the Big Island.  The current track puts the center of landfall near Hilo.

[cinyc]

In face of storms and a request to delay, primary election still on

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[cinyc]

I feel like people are making this a bigger deal than it should be. But I guess you have to be prepared.

It won't effect the election all that much, and it won't effect it enough to call it off.

All the links and info you've been posting about it makes me think you really want the election to be called off though.

Taking a direct hit from a hurricane is a big deal.  Hurricanes are not to be messed with.   We'll have to see how much it will affect the election.  My guess is things will be pretty bad on the Big Island Thursday and Friday and some polling places there might be consolidated if the election isn't postponed there altogether. 

The Big Island is now under a hurricane warning and Maui County (which includes Maui, Lanai and Molokai) is under a tropical storm warning.  Oahu (Honolulu) is under a tropical storm watch.

I don't care if the election is postponed.  I am posting about the storm because it could lead to lower turnout and/or a delay in some places.  And Abercrombie's electoral fortune could hinge on how well the state government handles the storm.

[cinyc]

Isnt HI mostly mail in? or is that just general elections.

Not mostly, no. But they do have a very robust Early/Absentee voting system for both the General and the primaries. A fair number of people do use it. I never did when I lived in Hawaii.

Almost 50% of the votes in the 2012 primaries were absentee/early.  As of July 29, 163,504 mail-in absentees were mailed out statewide. 

In-person early voting is open until tomorrow.

[cinyc]

50% isn't most. It is quite a few, as I said, though. Understandable why people would want to in Hawaii.

Hawaii having it means that alot of people who might not vote do. Helps with the low voter turnout of the past years.

I bet you that this will be the primary year when more voters vote absentee/early than on election day.  The trend is clear.  According to Hawaii News Now, "Early walk-in and mail-in voting before primary elections has steadily increased statewide in recent years, going from 37 percent in 2006 to 39 percent in 2008 and jumping to 44 percent in 2010 and going up further to 49 percent before the last primary in 2012."  I think I also read that  the number of mail-in absentees are already outpacing 2012.

The Big Island is extending early voting hours today.  Maui is closing most county offices early tomorrow, but early voting will go on as scheduled.  I haven't heard anything about Hawaii County's plans yet.

Oahu is now under a Tropical Storm warning.  Kauai and Niihau have been put under a Tropical Storm watch.  After trending southward in most recent iterations, the expected path veered a bit north in the 11PM Eastern notice, putting the storm center almost in the center of the Big Island and putting Maui and Oahu on the edge of the CPHC's cone.

[cinyc]

Walk-in early voting ended four hours early at noon on the Big Island today.  Not that I'd expect many people going out to vote in pre-hurricane conditions to begin with.  Early voting hours were extended last night.

Hurricane Iselle is expected to make landfall on the Big Island later today, as a marginal hurricane or strong tropical storm.

[cinyc]

Iselle didn't do much damage to the Big Island.  The center made landfall as a Tropical Storm a good distance south of Hilo, near Hawaii Volcanoes National Park in a relatively unpopulated area.  It brought a lot of rain to the windward side of the Big Island - over a foot in some places - and, as would be expected, brought down some trees.  About 22,000 customers lost power on the Big Island.  Yet some areas on the leeward side of the island, especially where the major resorts are, didn't see a drop of rain or much in the way of winds.  Mauna Loa protected that side of the island and ripped Iselle to shreds.

The primary election will go on as scheduled tomorrow, with possible precinct consolidations if the polling place doubles as an active hurricane shelter.  Only 17 polling places statewide could be affected - and some are on Oahu and Kauai, which will be least affected by the storm.  I think the most you might see is a precinct consolidation or two on the Big Island.

[cinyc]

I just heard David Louie (Hawaii's Attorney General) speak on KITV, you'll have to take me on my word, but he said that only two polling places on the big island will be affected as they will be closed. The effected voters will be voting via Absentee Ballots.

Hawaii News Now reports: "Roads leading to Hawaii Paradise Community Center (04-01) and Keoneopoko Elementary School (04-02) polling places are closed. “According to Hawaii County Civil Defense, the damage to roadways have left some communities in Puna isolated,” Nago says."

Voters cast 1,120 and 1,029 election day ballots in those precincts, respectively, in the 2012 Democratic Primary.  Hirono beat Case with 61-64% of the vote, 4-7 points better than she did statewide and about on par with her performance in Hawaii County.

[cinyc]

What time do the polls close tonight?

6:00 PM. Midnight here.

Why not 11pm as in Presidential elections?

Daylight Savings Time.  Hawaii doesn't observe it, so it's 6 hours behind the east coast in summer.

[cinyc]

According to KITV, voters in the two delayed Puna precincts will in-person vote on Friday.  The precincts will be combined so that the vote is only held at one location, Keonepoko Elementary School.  Also:

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[cinyc]

Hawaii News Now has slightly different "already voted" numbers:

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I think KITV's numbers were for all of HD4, not the two missing precincts.

[cinyc]

Assuming Hanabusa loses her lawsuit, which is being heard on the Big Island right now, Hawaii News Now says that we should get first results around 7:15PM Hawaii Time on Friday (1:15AM Saturday Morning Eastern time).  That's because the computer cards from the 16 voting machines need to be driven to Hilo, about 45 minutes away.  We will also get a second printout later in the day that includes mail-in absentees physically returned to the precinct.

[cinyc]

Not surprisingly, the judge denied Hanabusa's request to delay the election in Puna.  Barring some Hail Mary emergency appeal, it will go on on Friday.

[cinyc]

Good. There isn't any good reason for it to be halted.

Hanabusa says she won't appeal, so the election is on for tomorrow.