NY-09, Special Election Thread

[cinyc]

is there any place to watch live results?

Again, the larger NYC media doesn't really care much about this race.  They did a story or two on the 11PM news - but it wasn't even the top story.   In a TV market with about 30 CDs, one special election matters little.

If you can get the cable-only NY1 or News 12 Brooklyn, they might be covering it.

[cinyc]

Definitely over.  Turner wins as there are nearly as many Brooklyn precincts out as there are in Queens.  And Queens is basically 50-50.  Turner should have a victory margin of ~6000 votes.

Try 8000

Yup.  Weprin is still on pace to take a 55-44 drubbing, losing by about 7,500 votes out of 68,500.  Reason: Brooklyn's results are lagging Queens' and Weprin is doing slightly better than breakeven in Queens.

[cinyc]

Called for Turner. Now to see what the margin is... since we have only a little bit over a third out of Brooklyn, I am very curious as to what the final numbers will be.

Could Turner get to about 55% or so?

Current straight line projection is 55-45 - though again, it seems to overproject the Brooklyn part of the district unless turnout was really higher there than Queens.  54% or 55% seems about right.

[cinyc]

Is it just me or are the ones that want sh^t crazy posts all over this thread all Dems. There may be only like 4 of them, but they are all Dems.

I appreciate the other 90% of D's and I's on here that do write sane posts.

Hopefully that wasn't directed at me. Just go take a look at the map of NV-2 in Clark County. It doesn't come close to the urban core of Las Vegas, or the Democratic stronghold of North Las Vegas. I stand by my statement, Politico doesn't know what it's talking about.

I never mapped NV, so I for one can't opine on this. But it would seem that the Dem CD in Vegas would have sucked up most of the most Dem precincts, and then we have a second CD which sucked up the marginal ones, which leaves  ... ?

Just look here. The district contains rural areas, Nellis AFB, and some rich looking suburbia to the south of town.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd

Including a very small sliver of the city of North Las Vegas (basically, the triangle bounded by NV 610, NV 573 and I-15.  Much of the rest near Nellis is probably unincorporated Clark County with a Las Vegas zip code.

[cinyc]

Next to nobody voted in North Las Vegas.  That is the reasonable inference from the really low turnout in Clark. It was only 18%. In Washoe it was 32%  

Lower relative turnout in Clark County makes a lot of sense.  The candidates didn't advertise in the Las Vegas TV market.  There was lower turnout in the Las Vegas TV Market's cow counties, Lincoln and Nye for the same reason.