What Wisconsin Senators will be bounced in the recalls?

[cinyc]

None from either party.  Both bases will turn out and cancel each other out.

[cinyc]

None from either party.  Both bases will turn out and cancel each other out.

In Kapaneke's seat that equals death for him. He doesn't have enough of a base in that district. Hopper also seems doomed due to his personal issues.

Both had enough of a base to win once - in a terrible year for Republicans.  It can easily happen again.

[cinyc]

Kapanake's district is just too Democratic to be able to pull it off again considering the increasing polarization.  Hopper is going up against the same opponent he had last time around, in which he won by .1%.  While that may have been a terrible year for Republicans it was also before it was known the married Hopper was banging a twenty something who he helped get a state job.

Again, if Kapanke managed to pull it off in 2008, the worst year for Republicans in recent memory, it can very easily happen again.  Any belief that only Democratic-leaning voters are energized by recall mania should have been easily disabused after Prosser kept his seat on the high court.  There is energy on both sides - and recalls work both ways.

Hopper might have sex scandal issues, but the Republican base will ignore that and come out to vote for him anyway.  Or Republicans might primary him if it looks like he will lose.

[cinyc]

Uh, Prosser failed to even get 43% in Kapanke's district. There just aren't enough Republicans in that district to save Kapanke.

So by that logic, Kloppenburg failed to get even 45% in Holperin's district, so he should be toast, right?  After all, there just aren't enough Democrats in that district to save Holperin.

Except I forgot - recalls only run one way - Democrats good, Republicans bad.

Honestly, I think by the time the recall actually comes around, a lot of the furor will be gone and most if not all of the incumbents will remain in office.  And there are still potential primaries to come - on both sides.

[cinyc]

cinyc, if your only argument is "if they won in 2008, people will overlook their corruption and vote to keep them", you probably shouldn't be bashing other people's logic.

Note I also said that a Republican could challenge Hopper in a primary if it looks like he's dead in the water, or Hopper could even decide not to run.

2008 was one of the worst years for Republicans, with extremely high turnout for Obama and the Democrats.  What makes you think that recall turnout would be as high or as skewed toward the Democrats?  Assuming that only Democrats would be energized enough to turn out come recall time is very risky.