Canada 2011 Official Thread

[cinyc]

Sun News Video of the TV version of the story, FWIW:
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/video/924574695001

[cinyc]

What else would you expect from the contemporary gutter 'press'? Something like this was always likely at some point - that's just the way these things work, as disgusting as that might be. They'll have been trying to dig up something as soon as the NDP's poll numbers went through the roof nationally.

I think you're giving journalists far too much credit.  They're generally a lazy bunch who are fed information for their stories.   I'd be shocked if the tip ultimately didn't come from the opposition research team of one of the three other parties, directly or indirectly.

[cinyc]

All Chow admitted was that Layton was found in a massage parlour by the police, and released without charges. Nothing about Layton being naked, or the Chinese masseuse, or wet Kleenex thrown into the trash.

It's yellow journalism overall. The news is advertised as "Layton found in bawdy house" when nobody has proof that it was a brothel. I have doubts that it is even legal for a policeman to reveal these confidential matters. Until a journalist can contact the TPS, this ranges on the absurd.

I don't think there's any dispute the massage parlor was allegedly being used as a brothel at time - even Chow said her husband was surprised to hear the allegations.  And I doubt Sun News would characterize it as a bawdy house unless there were some arrests made at that location - Canadian libel laws are far too tilted in favor of those allegedly defamed for even the press and Sun could easily get sued over it.

I also doubt there's any dispute that the masseuse was Chinese.  Sun News has zero reason to lie about that - nor is it particularly relevant in the grand scheme of things.  

Much of the rest of Sun News' report apparently comes directly from the notes of the police officer who spoke with Layton at the time.  Why would he have lied about things in those notes, exactly?   Now, Layton might have a different recollection or no recollection about the specifics of the situation at all, but I don't think Sun News is just making stuff up.

At the end of the day, how the NDP handles this will tell us a lot about whether they are fit to govern.  So far, they seem to be on top of things and fighting back properly.

[cinyc]

Interesting how in just a few days the race in Charlesbourg went from Cons vs. NDP to BQ vs. NDP.

Caveat emptor on these riding polls.  Were the Charlesbourg polls even by the same pollster?

The MoE on the most recent set of polls is so high (+/-4.9%) that everyone but the Liberals are still in the race in Charlesbourg.

[cinyc]

I think it's safe to say that all 5 Quebec City seats are in play for the NDP, and they are so close that it will probably be all or none.

Yes, the seats are in play, but I don't think it will necessarily be all or none.  A split is certainly possible.

[cinyc]

I think yesterday was the last day for polling under Canadian law.  I guess pollsters will now have a very convenient excuse if their last poll (likely released Friday or Saturday) overstates NDP support.

[cinyc]

I think yesterday was the last day for polling under Canadian law.  I guess pollsters will now have a very convenient excuse if their last poll (likely released Friday or Saturday) overstates NDP support.

I don't think so.

The law states than the last day for releasing polls is on Sunday, May 1st.
But I don't think there is anything about polling?

I think you're right.  A 1994 report to Parliament said federal law prohibited disseminating new poll results in the final three days of an election campaign - but the last polls were conducted two and even one day before the election in 2008.  So that law must have been changed in the interim.

In any event, to the extent polls were sanctioned by newspapers and their biggest edition is a Saturday edition, I suspect that polling is complete.  Some pollsters (Nanos) will poll on Saturday - but I doubt many will poll much of Sunday.  Those who do not will have a very convenient excuse if NDP support craters.  But like I've said before, it might not, since last-minute allegations sometimes backfire.

[cinyc]

"Bawdy house"? Canada is so quaint.

I don't really get whose mind this would change at this point. Presumably conservative pearl-clutchers would be voting Tory (or Christian Heritage or whatever), and Liberal defectors are probably not going to be swayed by something this minor if they're pissed off enough at the Liberals to switch to the NDP. This seems somewhat reminiscent of the hail-mary "Aqua Buddha" or "There is no God!" last-minute ads that didn't help Conway or Dole any, and probably hurt them.

This type of attack is almost always geared toward making undecided or weak-supporting female voters not vote for the candidate involved in the sex scandal.  It very well could backfire, but it's not exactly the same thing as Aqua Budha or "There is no God!"  because it involves sex and prostitution, not religion.  Sex sells.

[cinyc]

You can post the regional breakdown there instead if you want

I don't think Nanos provided one - yet.  Instead, he gave polling numbers for the last three days.  Today, Nanos polled more decided voters than usual: 702 - about double.  

Today's sample was:
Conservatives 38.7%
NDP 30.5%
Liberals 20.9%
Bloc 5.0%
Greens 3.7%
Other 1.3%
(MoE +/- 3.7%)

Yesterday was better for the NDP:
Conservatives 33.8%
NDP 33.8%
Liberal 19.9%
Bloc 7.1%
Greens 4.0%
Other 1.4%
(MoE +/- 5.3%)

While Friday was better for the Liberals:
Conservatives 36.5%
NDP 31.7%
Liberal 23.5%
Bloc 3.7%
Greens 3.7%
Other 0.8%
(MoE +/- 5.3%)

Caveat emptor on daily sample weighting, etc.

Undecideds were about 12% of the called sample every day, increasing from 11.7% on Friday to 12.2% on both Saturday and Sunday.

[cinyc]

Election Prediction Project's close-to-final projection currently stands at:
Conservatives 146
Liberals 65
NDP 61
Bloc 33
Independent 1
Too Close 2

The too close ridings are Laurier-Sainte-Marie in Quebec and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour in Nova Scotia.  

Laurier-Sainte-Marie appears to be between the NDP and Bloc, while Dartmouth-Cole Harbour seems to be between the NDP and Liberals.  Ultimately, that means Election Projection projects the Liberals will end up with more seats than the NDP.  Interesting.

[cinyc]

Well good lucky getting any decent coverage of this tomorrow...

http://tweettheresults.ca/

C-SPAN 2 is supposed to rebroadcast Canadian coverage (likely from CBC) starting at 10PM Eastern.

[cinyc]

Election Prediction is still shifting. They now have the NDP with more seats than the Liberals, with all races projected:

Conservatives 146
Liberals 63
N.D.P. 65
Bloc  33
Independent 1

I'm not sure if this will be their last update.
   

[cinyc]

Polls close in Newfoundland not too long from now, no? 7:30 their time, right, which is 6:00 Eastern? Is that right? Any news from N&L?

Polls close by time zone.  Precincts in the Newfoundland and Atlantic time zones close 8:30 local time, which is 7:00 Eastern in Newfoundland and a small part of Labrador and 7:30 PM Eastern in most of Labrador, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and part of one or two ridings in Quebec.

In Quebec, the Îles-de-la-Madeleine part of Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine is in the Atlantic Time Zone for sure.  I seem to recall getting some early results from that riding in past elections.  I think the Eastern part of Manicouagan is on Atlantic time, too - though I don't remember if we got some early results from there in the past.

Edited to add: Most of Labrador might be officially on Newfoundland time but unofficially on Atlantic time.  I have no idea how that is handled.  In any event, it's just a half hour's difference, anyway.

[cinyc]

Ah, thanks Max/MB.

In other news, Harper broke the law today by making campaign statements on the radio.

That's silly.  If that's the case, so did Ignatieff:
"This election doesn't belong to the politicians, it doesn't belong to me; it belongs to the people of Canada; and I hope everybody will vote today and, of course, I want everybody to vote Liberal."

And probably Layton and Duceppe, too.  

Canada seems to be the king of silly election day laws.

[cinyc]

Any of our posters outside Canada able to get the current results.  Or anyone know a site where I can get them.  What about at C-SPAN?

C-SPAN's coverage starts at 10 Eastern.

[cinyc]

Voter turnout is supposedly high in Newfoundland, per Twitter - double or up 70%, depending on who you believe.

[cinyc]

Bob Rae? No. What, do they wanna solidify the Tories' showing in Ontario?

I think that if Rae ends up Liberal leader, there won't be a Liberal Party as we know it come 2015.  And he won't lead the merged NDP-Liberal Party, anyway, so he won't hurt chances in Ontario.

[cinyc]

Umm... Yeah... About that...

Frank Graves, EKOS Research

What he said prior to election: “We would see a Conservative minority where the NDP were within 20 seats and the NDP and the Liberals combined would have a narrow majority between them.”

What he said last night: “This has not been a good night for me. We were almost spot on about the popular vote, but where we really screwed up was with the Tory majority. We need to go back and do some work to find out what went wrong, but nobody has the resources to do this. This is done on a shoestring budget, and while we do our best to try and understand our failures it requires analysis and time and nobody is really interested in that.”

EKOS was CBC's pollster.  You think they'd be interested in learning why their poll results stunk so that they could get hired in the future or something.

[cinyc]

The fact is that the NDP is culturally a bad fit. Its not that its Quebec caucus is made up of students, activists, and randoms, its that the party as a whole is identified with groups that a lot of the Liberal electorate does not want representing them even if they agree with them politically. If the Liberals and NDP were to merge while the NDP is artificially inflated by their Quebec win, a party of professionals would be replaced in the Toronto suburbs with a party of inner city activists, and that would be devastating.

Well, if you believe Compas' polling, the NDP itself has been attracting a more educated base than in the past and is less reliant on students, activists and randoms than most think.  That said, there definitely would be blue Liberals who would switch to the Tories should the NDP and Liberals merge, just as some red Tories switched to the Liberals after the Progressive Conservatives merged with the Reform Party to form the current Conservative Party of Canada.

[cinyc]

Is Elizabeth May the only person who possesses American citizenship in the HoC?

In the current Parliament?  Maybe.  It would largely depend on the backgrounds of the new class of Dippers - some of whom are virtual unknowns.  Conservative Diane Ablonczy from Calgary --- Nose Hill was born in Peoria, Illinois, but told the CBC she wasn't a dual citizen of the US. Former Conservative MP Myron Thompson is a US citizen - but he left office in 2008.