Official US 2010 Census Results (user search)
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cinyc
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« Reply #50 on: March 08, 2011, 03:46:17 PM »
« edited: March 08, 2011, 04:10:22 PM by cinyc »

California has been released.

San Diego County jumped Orange to become the second-largest in the state.  The fastest-growing of the top 20 counties was Riverside (+41.7%), followed by Kern (Bakersfield) (+26.9%), San Joaquin (Stockton/Tracy) (+21.6%) and Tulare (Visalia) (+20.2%).  Basically, Inland Empire and Central Valley counties.  Riverside picked up the most new residents - over 640,000, followed by San Bernadino (+19.1%; 325,000), Los Angeles (+3.1%; almost 300,000) and San Diego (+10.0%; 280,000).   Orange County grew by 5.8%, Santa Clara by 5.9%, Alameda by 4.6%, Sacramento by 16.0%, Contra Costa by 10.6%, San Francisco by 3.7% and San Mateo by a paltry 1.6%.

Los Angeles remains by far the largest city in the state with almost 3.8 million residents (+2.6%).  San Diego (+6.9%) cracked 1.3 million.  The fastest-growing of the top 20 cities in the state is Fontana (+52.1%) in San Bernadino County.  Irvine, Orange County was next (+48.4%), followed by Bakersfield (+40.6%), Chula Vista, San Diego County (+40.5%), Stockton (+19.7%) and Riverside (+19.1%).  Santa Ana (-4.0%) and Oakland (-2.2%) lost population.  Long Beach barely grew (+0.2%).

California grew by 10.0%.  Its non-Hispanic White population fell by 5.4% from 2000.  Non-Hispanic whites now comprise 40.1% of California's population, Latinos 37.6%, non-Hispanic Asians 12.8% and non-Hispanic blacks 5.8%.  California's non-Hispanic Black (-0.8%) and non-Hispanic American Indian (-9.3%) also fell from 2000.
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cinyc
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« Reply #51 on: March 08, 2011, 04:01:34 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2011, 04:07:09 PM by cinyc »

Its Indian population fell? Lol. What's going on here?

California has a huge number of reservations but most of them are tiny. It also has a lot of people of (often part) native Californian descent who are not members of any recognized sovereign nation and who usually pass as Chicanos for most of their daily lives - a lot of them identify as Native American on Census records though, or at least did in 2000. Actually, quite a few offrez-residing recognized California natives do the same thing.
And needless to say, it has huge numbers of whites with a part Indian great-grandparent, or Whites with an Indian grandparent who're actually registered members of an Indian nation, or Whites with a false family tradition of Indian ancestry somewhere deep in the recesses of the 19th or 18th century. A lot of whom report as Native or more commonly as White and Native. But if those reporting practices were changing, we would have seen that in stats for other states as well, wouldn't we?

I think you answered your own question.  California's NON-HISPANIC American Indian population fell.  Its overall American Indian population rose by 8.8%.  So did its overall White population (+6.4%) for that matter.  

When Hispanicness matters more than Nativeness in the racial classifications of the day, that's the result you end up getting.

I should have made the non-Hispanic part clearer in my original post.  I've since edited it.

The only counties that lost population were Alpine, Sierra and Plumas.  Placer County near Sacramento isn't among the top 20 largest counties of the state, but grew by more than 25%.
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cinyc
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« Reply #52 on: March 08, 2011, 04:11:38 PM »

Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Ohio were shipped today.  They are expected to be released around 2PM Eastern tomorrow.
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cinyc
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« Reply #53 on: March 08, 2011, 04:29:05 PM »

Alpine lost population? It has only 1200 people... and that's after some reasonably robust growth in the last few decades. It also has utterly bizarre demographics - it's, like, half Mormon and quarter Peyotist. With no other established place of worship existing in the county (any practicing mainstream Christians probably drive elsewhere.)

Alpine's population fell from 1,208 to 1,175 (-2.7%).  At least that was better than the 2009 estimate - 1,041.  Sierra fell from 3,555 to 3,240 (-8.9%).  That was better than the 2009 estimate - 3,174.   Plumas fell from to 20,824 to 20,007 (-3.9%).  Its 2009 estimate was fairly accurate, but off on the high side - 20,122.

FWIW, Placer County grew by 40.3%, slightly slower than Riverside.  It picked up just over 100,000 new residents.
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cinyc
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« Reply #54 on: March 08, 2011, 05:43:19 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2011, 05:45:00 PM by cinyc »

FWIW - and probably not much, given that the California redistricting panel will be drawing completely new lines - best I can tell from trying to import the data into Excel (which caused an error):

CA-3, 4, 11, 21, 22, 25, 41, 44, 45 and 49 are significantly overpopulated (by 70,000 or more residents).  CA-25 (Santa Clarita, Antelope and part of Victor Valleys), 44 and 45 (Inland Empire) are the most over, by 140,000+ residents.  (CA-25 is 211,000 over.)  All three are held by Republicans.  

CA-31 in Los Angeles County is the most under, needing over 91,500 new residents.  CA-7, 9, 12, 14, 29, 32, 33, 38, 46, 47 all need more than 40,000 new residents.

CA-1, 2, 5 and 23 are within 7,500 residents of ideal, CA-1 the most ideal (+1107).
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cinyc
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« Reply #55 on: March 09, 2011, 02:30:05 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2011, 03:47:20 PM by cinyc »

Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Ohio are out.

Connecticut
At a macro level, there isn't a ton of change to report about the counties or top 20 cities/towns of Connecticut.  The top 10 cities remain the same.  Bridgeport is the largest municipality, growing by 3.4%.  New Haven (+5.0%) and Hartford (+2.6%) are next, followed by Stamford (+4.7%) and Waterbury (+2.9%).  All of those 5 cities but New Haven have more Hispanic residents than African-Americans (even before taking into account Hispanic status) - I'm not sure whether this was also true in 2000. Among the top 20 municipalities, only Middletown (+10.4%), Danbury (+8.1%) and Hamden (+7.1%) experienced anything close to rapid growth - and that's being charitable.  West Hartford lost 0.7% of its population.  Greenwich (+0.1%), Bristol (+0.7%) and Milford (+0.9%) barely grew.  By comparison, the state grew 4.9%.

Connecticut's counties don't matter much, as there is no county government.  Nevertheless, Tolland, east of Hartford, grew the fastest (+12.0%), followed by Windham in the quiet (northeast) corner (+8.6%) and central Middlesex (+6.5%) and southeast coastal New London (+5.8%).  Growth in the other four counties was less than the statewide average (3.9% to 4.7%).

Connecticut's non-Hispanic white population fell by 3.5%.  It's Hispanic population grew by 49.6%, its non-Hispanic Asian population by 64.4% and its non-Hispanic African American population by 13.4%

Pennsylvania
Synopsis: Philly is flat; Pittsburgh (-8.6%) and Western PA lose big time; Lehigh Valley, Amish Country, Harrisburg area and some Philly Suburbs grow.  Tiny Forest County grows the fastest in the state; NYC exurbs in Pike and Monroe Counties grow next fastest, but not in top 20 list.  2.2% of Non-Hispanic whites flee the state.

Ohio
Synopsis: All of the top 10 cities other than Columbus (+10.6%) lose population, Youngstown (-18.3%) Cleveland (-17.1%) and Dayton (-14.8%) and Cincinnati (-10.4%) by double digits.   Columbus-area counties grow the most, especially Delaware (+58.4%).  Hamilton County (Cincy) loses population (-5.1%), but some neighboring counties like Warren (+34.3%) grow.  Northeast Ohio... Yikes!  1.9% of Non-Hispanic whites flee Ohio.

More to come.
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cinyc
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« Reply #56 on: March 09, 2011, 03:13:27 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2011, 03:15:38 PM by cinyc »

Is Forest County, PA a typo or did the population really double while every county around it lost population?

I don't think it's a typo.  Four words: Marcellus Natural Gas Shale.  It might have been where the most drilling interest was last April.  That, plus the fact that it was the smallest county in the state with a population of less than 5,000 makes it easy for a small number of new residents to cause a big swing that isn't quite as big in real numbers.
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cinyc
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« Reply #57 on: March 09, 2011, 05:18:06 PM »
« Edited: March 09, 2011, 05:29:31 PM by cinyc »

Is Forest County, PA a typo or did the population really double while every county around it lost population?

I don't think it's a typo.  Four words: Marcellus Natural Gas Shale.  It might have been where the most drilling interest was last April.  That, plus the fact that it was the smallest county in the state with a population of less than 5,000 makes it easy for a small number of new residents to cause a big swing that isn't quite as big in real numbers.

I seem to remember something about a big prison complex opening in Forest County. Estimates have had it growing rapidly since at least 2007 (when I made a map of growth estimates by county, and I remember Forest County being estimated to be growing anomalously fast then, too).

Yeah, that would do it, especially when the county was very small to begin with.

Sheliak5 - Thanks for the map.  Northeast Ohio doesn't look that bad compared to say, central South Dakota or Western Kansas.  But Cuyahoga County probably lost more residents (about 110,000) than live in those areas.

Arizona, Idaho and Wisconsin will be released around 3PM tomorrow.
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cinyc
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« Reply #58 on: March 10, 2011, 04:18:55 AM »
« Edited: March 10, 2011, 04:43:26 AM by cinyc »

Some Connecticut town maps, since I've done them in the past and have kept some 2000 data.  All use the Atlas swing color scale (Redder is an increase; Bluer is a decrease.  Something close to 0 usually ends up light blue).

First, overall town population change from 2000:


Winners: much of the Naugatuck Valley and parts of Eastern CT.  Losers: Towns on the New York State Line, especially in Northeastern CT.

Next, what I call white flight - I didn't due this in absolute population gain or loss yet because I'd have to re-do my 2000 spreadsheets.  Instead, I calculated percent change in the non-Hispanic White population - i.e. (town non-Hispanic White percentage in 2010) minus (town non-Hispanic White percentage in 2000):



As I said, the light blue towns were generally flat.  The biggest decreases were in some of the larger cities and their suburbs, especially areas of suburban Hartford.

A lot of the change, naturally, was due to an influx of Hispanics, as you can see here:


Though, some was due to an increase in the relative percentage of non-Hispanic African-Americans, too, especially in the Hartford area:


Asians, for the heck of it.  

Most relative percent increases were tiny - less than 5 points - except in Norwich and Rocky Hill.  I'm sure this map would be more impressive in percentage increase terms.
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cinyc
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« Reply #59 on: March 10, 2011, 03:49:51 PM »
« Edited: March 10, 2011, 05:29:35 PM by cinyc »

Arizona, Idaho and Wisconsin have been released:

Arizona
Arizona experienced rapid growth last decade (+24.6%).  In percentage terms, no county grew faster than Pinal (SW Phoenix Exburbs/maybe a few N Tucson exuburbs), whose population more than doubled (+109.1%).  In absolute terms, Maricopa County (Phoenix) picked up almost 745,000 new residents, growing almost as fast as the state as a whole (+24.2%).  59% of the state's new residents were in Maracopa.  Other big gainers were Mohave, home to cities like Kingman, Bullhead City and Lake Havasu City near or on the California/Nevada border (+29.1%), Yavapai County, north of Maricopa (Prescott; +26.0%), Santa Cruz County, a Mexican border county south of Tucson's county of Pima (Nogales +23.6%) and Yuma County (+22.3%).  Pima (Tucson) picked up the third-most residents, but only grew by 16.2%.  Tiny Greenlee County on the New Mexico border lost 1.3% of its residents.

Some of the city growth numbers are phenomenal.  The city of Maricopa, a Phoenix exurb nestled between two Indian reservations in Pinal County, grew by 4,081.0%.  No, that's not a typo.  Bristol Palin is in good company.   By comparison, the west valley town of Buckeye, Maricopa County "only" grew by 678.3%.  Other west-suburban Phoenix stragglers like Surprise (+281.0%), Goodyear (+245.2%) and Avondale (+112.5%) also experienced triple-digit growth.  Casa Grande, Pinal County (+92.6%) and Gilbert in Southeast Maricopa (+90.0%) were other fast-growers.  Gilbert picked up more residents (almost 99,000) than all Arizona cities but Phoenix (+9.4%; almost 125,000 new residents).  Tucson grew by 6.9%.  

One caveat - without further analysis, we can't tell how much of any growth was due to annexation versus gains in the municipality as it existed in 2000.

Arizona's non-Hispanic White population grew by 12.9%.  Its Hispanic population increased by 46.3%.  Hispanics now make up 29.6% of the state's population, up from 25.3%.

Idaho
Idaho grew by 21.1%.  Most of the growth was in the Boise area and near Idaho Falls, with some additional growth in counties near or including Twin Falls and Spokane, Washington.  The fastest-growing county was Teton (+69.5%), on the other side of Teton Pass from Jackson, Wyoming - but its still not one of the state's top 20 counties.  Among the top 20, Canyon (+43.7%), west of Boise, grew fastest, followed by Madison (+36.7%) and Jefferson (+36.5%), both North of Idaho Falls; +36.7%),  Ada (Boise; +30.4%), Kootenai (Spokane suburbs/Coeur d'Alene; +27.4%), and Bonneville (Idaho Falls; +26.3%).  Jerome (+22.0%) and Twin Falls Counties (+20.1%), both in the Twin Falls area, grew at around the same rate as the state.  Among the top 20 counties, Elmore, immediately east of Ada (Mountain Home; -7.2%) and Minidoka, in between Twin Falls and Pocatello (-0.5%) lost population.

On the municipal level, many of the biggest percentage gainers were Boise suburbs - Kuna (+182.6%) and Meridian's (+115.0%) population doubled, while Caldwell (+78.1%) and  Nampa (+57.2%) also posted impressive gains.  In the Idaho Falls area, Ammon's population more than doubled (+123.3%), and Rexburg, Madison County posted a 47.7% gain.  Post Falls (+59.9%), Hayden (+45.1%) and Coeur d'Alene (27.9%) in the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area also grew.   And the Pocatello suburb of Chubbuck (+43.5%) grew faster than the state.   Meriden picked up the most new residents (just over 40,000), followed by Nampa (almost 30,000), Caldwell (just over 20,000) and Boise (just under 20,000; +10.7%).

Idaho's non-Hispanic White population grew by 15.5%.  Its non-Hispanic plack population almost doubled (+81.5%) - though there are still fewer non-Hispanic blacks in Idaho than Hispanics, non-Hispanic Asians or non-Hispanic American Indians.  Idaho's Hispanic population grew by 73.0%, non-Hispanic Asians by 59.2% and non-Hispanic American Indians by 11.2%.  

Wisconsin
Wisconsin grew by 6.0% - far less rapidly than Arizona or Idaho.  Fast-growth was the exception, not the norm.  In percentage terms, St. Croix, a growing exurban county in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul area, grew fastest of the top 20 counties (+33.6%).  Nothing else came close.  Dane (Madison) grew by 14.4%, picking up the most new residents (around 65,500).  Three suburban/exurban Milwaukee-area counties came next - Jefferson (+13.1%), Washington (+12.3%) and Kenosha (+11.3%).  No other major county grew by more than 10%.  In absolute terms, Milwaukee-suburban Waukesha County (+8.1%) picked up nearly 30,000 new residents, while St. Croix County and Green Bay's Brown County (+9.4%) picked up over 21,000.  Milwaukee County only grew by 0.8%, gaining just over 7,500 new residents.  Unlike some more sparsely-populated counties primarily in northeastern Wisconsin, none of Wisconsin's top 20 counties lost population.

Among the top-20 cities, only Madison (+12.1%) experienced a double-digit gain.  Kenosha (+9.8%) and Waukesha (+9.1%) in the Milwaukee area, Janesville (+6.9%) in southern Wisconsin and Eau Claire (+6.9%) in western Wisconsin grew faster than the state as whole.  The city of Milwaukee lost 0.4% of its population.  Other losers include Milwaukee-area Racine (-3.7%), the lake Michigan city of Sheboygan (-3.0%), Milwaukee County-suburban Brookfield (-1.9%), Wauwatosa (-1.9%) and West Allis (-1.4%) and  La Crosse (-1.0%) on the Minnesota border in the southeastern part of the state.

Wisconsin's non-Hispanic white population increased by 1.2%.  Its Hispanic population exploded by 74.2% - but Hispanics still remain under 6% of the state's population.  Wisconsin's non-Hispanic Asian population increased by 45.5%, non-Hispanic blacks by 16.9% and non-Hispanic American Indians by 10.3%.
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cinyc
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« Reply #60 on: March 10, 2011, 05:03:03 PM »

Next week: Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota and Tennessee.
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cinyc
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« Reply #61 on: March 10, 2011, 06:15:19 PM »

Wisconsin seems to be holding people rather better than similar areas in neighbouring states, both comparing the rural southwest to rural Iowa and Illinois, and Milwaukee to other Great Lakes industrial cities.

Milwaukee lost a little bit of its population, but, yes, it was no Cleveland.   Of the Great Lakes states, Wisconsin might be the least dependent on manufacturing - that's my sense of the state, though I don't know if there's data to actually back up my impression.

I can't wait to see how much population Detroit lost.  But it appears that we will have to wait yet another week for Michigan, New York, West Virginia, South Carolina and four New England states (Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire and Rhode Island).  Those 8 states will be all that is left after next week's releases.  Every state west of or on the Mississippi River will have been released.  I think we might get DC and Puerto Rico at some point before April 1, too, most likely last.
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cinyc
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« Reply #62 on: March 10, 2011, 08:36:18 PM »

Wisconsin seems to be holding people rather better than similar areas in neighbouring states, both comparing the rural southwest to rural Iowa and Illinois, and Milwaukee to other Great Lakes industrial cities.

Milwaukee lost a little bit of its population, but, yes, it was no Cleveland.   Of the Great Lakes states, Wisconsin might be the least dependent on manufacturing - that's my sense of the state, though I don't know if there's data to actually back up my impression.

Actually Wisconsin is second in the nation by % of adults employed in manufacturing. But Milwaukee's flagship industry is less vulnerable to the replacement of workers by machines because, well, it is the replacement of workers by machines.

Yeah, maybe not.  I would have expected Ohio to rank higher.  For whatever reason, traveling through Wisconsin doesn't seem to give the same depressing feeling you get traveling through Upstate New York, Northern Ohio or Michigan.
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cinyc
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« Reply #63 on: March 14, 2011, 04:44:18 PM »

Alaska, Montana and New Mexico have shipped to legislators.  Montana and New Mexico are expected to be released at 2PM Eastern tomorrow.  Due to time zone differences, we'll likely have to wait until 2PM Wednesday for Alaska.
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cinyc
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« Reply #64 on: March 15, 2011, 02:13:42 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2011, 02:41:57 PM by cinyc »

Montana and New Mexico were released today:

Montana
Eastern Montana generally lost population, while Western Montana gained.  On the county level, Gallatin (Bozeman) grew at the fastest rate of the top 20 counties, 32.0%.  It also picked up the most new residents, over 20,000.   Flathead (Kalispell/Whitehead/Part of Glacier National Park; +22.1%) was next, followed by Yellowstone (Billings; +14.4%), Missoula (+14.1%), Lewis and Clark (Helena; +13.8%), and Jefferson (South suburbs of Helena; +13.5%).   Sanders County (+11.6%),  west of Missoula on the Idaho border and home to part of the Flathead Indian Reservation, and Rivalli (Hamilton; +11.5%), south of Missoula along the Bitterroot Valey near the Idaho border, also grew faster than the state as a whole (+9.7%).

Among the top 20 counties, Hill (Havre/Canadian border;-3.5%), Fergus (Lewistown; -2.6%), Roosevelt (Culbertson/Fort Peck Indian Reservation; 1.8%), Silver Bow (Butte; -1.2%) and Park (Livingston/Part of Yellowstone NP; -0.4%) lost population.

Billings (+15.9%) remains the largest city in the state, with a population exceeding 100,000 for the first time in its history.  It picked up the most new residents, over 14,000.  The resort town of Kalispell (+40.1%) grew fastest among the top 20, followed by Bozeman (+35.5%), the Bozeman suburb of Belgrade (+29.0%), and two of Kalispell's Flathead Valley neighbors, Columbia Falls (+28.6%) and Whitefish (+26.3).  Missoula grew by 17.1%.  The state capital of Helena grew by 9.3%.  Sidney (8.7%), Glendive (+4.4%) Great Falls (+3.2%) and Livingston (+2.8%) grew slower than the state as a whole.  Havre (-3.2%), near the Canadian border,  Anaconda-Deer Lodge (-1.3%) near Butte ,Butte-Silver Bow (-1.2%) itself, and Miles City (-0.9%) in eastern Montana all lost population.

Montana's non-Hispanic White population grew by 7.5%.  Its Hispanic population increased by 58.0% to 2.9% of the population.  Montana's non-Hispanic African American population increased by 47.7% and non-Hispanic Asian population by 34.3% - but to just 0.4% and 0.6% of the population, respectively.  Montana's non-Hispanic American Indian population increased by 10.1% to 6.1%.

New Mexico
In general, New Mexico's fastest growth was in the Albuquerque-Santa Fe area, the Las Cruces-El Paso area, Farmington area and near the Texas border.  Other counties were flat or even lost population.

The fastest-growing county was Sandoval (+46.3%), immediately north of Albuquerque.  It picked up more residents than any county but Bernalillo (Albuquerque; +19.0%).  Bernalillo gained over 105,000 residents in the past decade - more than live in all but 5 counties in the state.  Other fast-growing counties include Las Cruces (19.8%), north of El Paso, Lea (Hobbs; +16.6%), on the Texas border, Valencia (+15.7%), immediately south of Albuquerque's county, and San Juan (Farmington; +14.3%), in the Northwest corner of the state.  Santa Fe (+11.5%) and Roosevelt (Portales/Texas border; +10.1%) Counties also experienced double-digit growth, but grew more slowly than the state as a whole (+13.2%).

Many of the fastest-growing municipalities were Albuquerque suburbs.  Rio Rancho in Sandoval County grew by 69.1%.  South suburban Los Lunas village grew by 47.8%  And Albuquerque itself grew by 21.7%, picking up more new residents than live in any other municipality but Las Cruces.  Other growth areas included market towns in the rest of the state: Las Cruces (+31.4%), Farmington (+21.2%), Hobbs (+19.1%), Lovington (near Hobbs; +16.2%) and Clovis (+15.6%).  Santa Fe (+9.2%), Gallup (+7.3%), Roswell (+6.8%) and Carlsbad (+2.0%) grew more slowly than the rest of the state, as did El Paso-suburban Sunland Park (+6.0%).  Alamagordo (-14.6%), Las Vegas (-5.6%) and Silver City (-2.2%) lost population.

New Mexico has become plurality Hispanic.  46.3% of residents are Hispanic.  40.5% are non-Hispanic White.  8.5% are non-Hispanic American Indian.  The non-Hispanic White population increased by 2.5%.  The Hispanic population grew by 24.6%.  Non-Hispanic American Indians were up by 8.6%.  The Non-Hispanic Asian (+44.1%) and Non-Hispanic Black (+15.7%) populations grew faster than the state as a whole, but their numbers are still small - each under 2%.

Alaska shipped yesterday and will be released tomorrow.  There's no word yet on which states (if any) shipped today.
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cinyc
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« Reply #65 on: March 15, 2011, 03:35:22 PM »

Minnesota, North Dakota and Tennessee shipped today.  Those three states and Alaska should be released at 2PM Eastern tomorrow.
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cinyc
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« Reply #66 on: March 15, 2011, 04:40:59 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2011, 04:46:33 PM by cinyc »

The resort town of Kalispell (+40.1%) grew fastest among the top 20, followed by Bozeman (+35.5%), the Bozeman suburb of Belgrade (+29.0%), and two of Kalispell's Flathead Valley neighbors, Columbia Falls (+28.6%) and Whitefish (+26.3).


Great write up, but Kalispell isn't a resort town.  Kalispell is the regional hub of NW Montana.  Whitefish 15 miles north is the major resort town of the area.  Lakeside and Bigfork on the Great Flathead Lake 15-20 miles south are smaller resort towns.  Columbia Falls, despite being the closest major city to Glacier N.P. is an industrial town built around lumber mills and an aluminum plant.

I tend to view the whole of Flathead County as a resort area.  Yes, Whitefish is closer to the major ski resort and probably has better quality lodging, but Kalispell has a fair number of hotels and motels in its own right and a number of golf courses, plus is closer to Flathead Lake.  I wouldn't doubt that Kalispell is more diverse economically.  The Columbia Falls area seems to be spawning a bunch of tourism-related attractions and businesses, too, though perhaps not within city limits.
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cinyc
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« Reply #67 on: March 16, 2011, 10:34:48 AM »
« Edited: March 16, 2011, 10:41:27 AM by cinyc »

Anybody know why Alamogordo's population fell? Cuts at the air force base?

That would be my guess, at least in part.  Wikipedia claims there were cuts to the German Air Force Flying Training Center there.  But that cut alone wouldn't explain all of the 5,200 or so residents who left Alamogordo over the past decade.  White Sands Missile Range and part of Fort Bliss are also in the area, though the more populated areas of Fort Bliss are closer to El Paso and the community of White Sands on the range is closer to Las Cruces.
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cinyc
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« Reply #68 on: March 16, 2011, 01:41:24 PM »

And both Minneapolis and St. Paul were almost flat, Minneapolis actually lost a total of just 40 people.

St. Paul lost over 2,000 residents.  Two larger Hennepin County suburbs also lost population, Bloomington, home of the Mall of America, and Minnetonka, in the western part of the county.  Hennepin County itself gained population.  St. Paul's County, Ramsey, lost population. 

Alaska, North Dakota and Tennessee are also out.  Memphis shrunk, but not by enough to be passed by Nashville-Davidson.  The growth in the Mat-Su Valley of Alaska was very high.  And Fargo is where it's at.

There will be more when I have a chance to write things up.
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cinyc
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« Reply #69 on: March 16, 2011, 02:45:25 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2011, 05:47:22 PM by cinyc »

Alaska, Minnesota, North Dakota and Tennessee have been released:

Alaska
Alaska doesn't really have counties.  Census uses Municipalities, Boroughs and Census Areas to describe regions.  Among the top 20, Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Anchorage's northern exurbs, was the fastest-growing, up 50% from 2000.   Surprisingly, North Slope Borough was next, up 27.7%.  Estimates had shown a population decrease in oil country.  Why there was a gain here is a bit of a conundrum - temporary oil workers working in Prudhoe Bay usually haven't counted as residents and North Slope's largest city, Barrow, actually lost population.   Fairbanks-North Star Borough (+17.8%) was next, followed by its rural neighbor, Southeast Fairbanks Borough (+13.8%).  Anchorage Municipality grew by 12.1%, slower than the state as a whole (+13.3%), but picked up more residents than any other county equivalent, even Mat-Su.  Kenai Peninsula Borough (+11.5%), south of Anchorage, also experienced double-digit growth.  

It appears that much of Southeast Alaska shrunk.  Juneau City and Borough (+1.8%) and Sitka City and Borough (+0.5%) barely grew, while Ketchikan Gateway Borough (-4.2%) declined.  Other geographic areas in Southeast Alaska weren't directly comparable due to incorporations and annexations.

Bush areas were mixed.  The Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area, generally encompassing extremely rural areas of interior Alaska to the north and west of Fairbanks, lost 14.7% of its population.  Valdez-Cordova Census Area (-5.5%), Kodiak Island Borough (-2.3%) and the Dillingham Census Area (-1.5%) on Bristol Bay lost population.  Others not in the top 20 also lost population, including Bristol Bay, Lake and Peninsula Borough on the Alaska Peninsula that sticks out toward the Aleutians, and Yakutat in Southeast Alaska.  On the other hand, some of the coastal bush county equivalents, including the Bethel Census Area (+6.3%), the Wade Hampton Census Area, south of Nome (+6.1%), Northwest Arctic Borough (Kotzebue; +4.4%), the Nome Census Area (+3.2%) and even the Aleutians West Census Area (+1.8%) grew, albeit more slowly than the state.   The Aleutians East Census Area was too small to be in the top 20, but also grew from 15-30% - faster than the state.

On the municipal level, the fastest-growth among the top 20 incorporated places was in South Central Alaska, particularly in Mat-Su and Kenai Peninsula Boroughs.  Sarah Palin's Wasilla was the fastest-growing incorporated place in the state, growing by 43.2%.  Wasilla was followed by the city of Palmer, Mat-Su (+31.0%), Homer, at the end of the road in Kenai (+26.8%), and Anchorage (+12.1%).  Bethel (+11.1%), the market town for much of rural southwest Alaska, and Soldotna, Kenai (+10.7%) also experienced double-digit growth.  Fairbanks city grew by just 4.3%, but it was enough to pass Juneau city (+1.8%) and borough as second-largest in the state.  The other larger municipalities in Southeast Alaska were stagnant or lost population.  The city of Petersburg lost 8.6% of its population, while Sitka (+0.5%), Ketchikan (+1.6%) and Wrangell (+2.6%) were largely flat.  Barrow (-8.1%), the northernmost city in America, Seward (-4.8%), at the end of the other road on the Kenai Peninsula, Kodiak (-3.2%), home to a Coast Guard base on Kodiak Island and the oil port city of Valdez (-1.5%) on Prince William Sound also lost population.
 
Alaska's non-Hispanic White population grew by 7.4%.  Its Hispanic population blossomed by 51.8%, and non-Hispanic Asian population by just about as much - 51.4%.  The non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native Population grew by 6.3%.  As a result, Alaska's non-Hispanic white population declined from 67.6% to 64.1% while its non-Hispanic Alaska Native population declined one point from 15.4% to 14.4%.  The Hispanic and non-Hispanic Asian population both increased by 1.4 points.  5.5% of the state's population is Hispanic.   5.3% is non-Hispanic Asian.

Minnesota
Minnesota's growth was largely concentrated in Minneapolis-St. Paul's suburbs and exurbs, with a few exceptions.  The fastest-growing of the top 20 counties in the state was MSP-southwest suburban Scott (+45.2%), followed by MSP-northwest suburban Wright (+38.6%) and Sherburne (+37.4%), MSP-northeast suburban Chisago (+31.1%) and MSP-east suburban Washington (+18.4%) - areas that BRTD will no doubt tell later us are all exurban hellholes.  Two closer-in MSP suburban counties, Dakota (+12.0%) and Anoka (+11.0%) picked up around the same number of residents as some of these more exurban counties, but grew more slowly in percentage terms due to a higher population base, with Dakota County picking up the most new residents of any county in the state.  At MSP's core, Hennepin County (Minneapolis) grew by 3.2%, while Ramsey County (St. Paul) lost 0.5% of its population.

Other rapid growth areas outside of the MSP suburbs/exurbs included Olmstead (Rochester; +16.1%), Clay (Moohead/Fargo; +15.2%), Blue Earth (Mankato; +14.4%),  Crow Wing (Brainerd; +13.4%), Rice (Fairbault, south of MSP; +13.2%) and Stearns (St. Cloud; +13.1%) counties.  St. Louis County (Duluth) lost 0.2% of its residents.  Otter Tail County (+0.3%) barely grew - which is more than can be said about most smaller counties in southwestern Minnesota.  Every county along the Canadian border except Cook lost population, with Lake of the Woods and Kittson leading the decline.  Every county bordering the Dakotas except Clay and Polk lost population, as did every county along the Iowa border other than Nobels and Mower.

On the municipal level, the fastest-growers were again in the MSP suburbs and exurbs.  Among the top 20 incorporated places, east-suburban Woodbury, Washington County lead the way with 33.4% growth.  It was followed by south-suburban Lakeville, Dakota County (+29.7%), north-sububan Blaine, Anoka County (27.2%), and, within the MSP metro, northwest-suburban Maple Grove, Hennepin County (+22.2%).   North-suburban Brooklyn Park, Hennepin County (+12.5%) and southwest-suburban Eden Prairie, Hennepin County (+10.7%) also experienced double-digit gains.  Minneapolis (-0.0%) was flat, losing 40 residents.  St. Paul (-0.7%) lost 2,083 residents.  Some MSP suburbs like Bloomington (-2.7%) and Minnetonka (-3.1%) and Coon Rapids (-0.2%) lost population while others like Eagan (1.0%) and Edina (+1.1%) were flat.  

Outside of the MSP metro, the city of Rochester grew the fastest among the top 20, at 24.4%.  Rochester's population is now over 100,000, passing Duluth to become Minnesota's third largest city.  St. Cloud (+11.4%) also grew.

Minnesota's non-Hispanic white population grew by 1.6%, much more slowly than the state as a whole (+7.8%).  Its Hispanic population was up 74.5%, while its non-Hispanic black (+59.4%) and non-Hispanic Asian (+51.0%) also grew rapidly.   Minnesota still has more non-Hispanic blacks than Hispanics of any race.


North Dakota
As Lewis Trondheim said, just 11 counties in North Dakota gained population.  But they included the Williston and Dickinson areas of Western North Dakota and the Magic City of Minot as well as Fargo, Grand Forks, Bismarck and some reservations.  Western North Dakota has seen an increase in oil and gas activity due to the discovery of recoverable oil in the Bakken formation.

Among North Dakota's 20 most populous counties, Cass (Fargo) grew the fastest, at a 21.6% clip.  It also picked up the most new residents - over 26,000 - more than live in all but the top-5 North Dakota counties.  Burleigh, home of the capital city of Bismarck, was next, growing at a 17.1% clip, followed by Mountrail (Stanley; +15.7%), in the western part of the state, Williams (Williston; 13.3%), Morton (Mandan; +8.6%), across the Missouri River from Bismarck, Stark (Dickinson; +6.9%), Ward (Minot; +4.9%), home to an Air Force Base in the north central part of the state, Rolette (+1.9%) on the Canadian border, home to Turtle Mountain Indian Reservation, and Grand Forks (+1.1%).  McKenzie, across the Missouri River from Williston, home to a sliver of the Fort Berhold Indian Reservation was not in the top 20, but experienced double-digit growth.  Sioux County, home of the Standing Rock Indian Reservation which straddles the border of the Dakotas, also grew.

Most counties lost population, among the top 20 counties, none more than Pembina (-13.7%), in the northeast corner of the state on the Canadian border.  Walsh County, immediately to Pembina's south, lost 10.3%.  Bottineau County (-10.1%) on the Canadian border also experienced a double-digit loss, as did many smaller, rural counties throughout the state.

On the municipal level, Horace a south Fargo suburb was the fastest-growing.  Its population more than doubled, increasing by 165.6%, albeit from a tiny 2000 base of 915.  West Fargo was the next fastest-growing, increasing its population by 72.9% - but from a much higher base of almost 15,000.  The Bismarck-area suburb of Lincoln (+39.1%) and Fargo-area Casselton (+25.6%) were next, albeit also from very small bases.  Williston (+17.6%) was next, followed by Fargo (+16.5%), which picked up more new residents than any other municipality.  Minot (+11.8%) continued its "magic" growth.  Dickinson (+11.1%) and Bismarck (+10.3%) grew by double-digits, while Bismarck's neighbor, Mandan (+9.6%) and Grand Forks (+7.1%) grew faster than the state (+4.7%).  Most smaller cities not in metro areas or the Western part of the state, like Wahpeton (-9.6%), in the southeast corner of the state and Bottineau (-5.4%) lost population.

North Dakota's non-Hispanic White population grew by 1.5%.  As previously mentioned, its non-Hispanic African American population (+105.3%) more than doubled, its non-Hispanic Asian population (+91.8%) almost did, and its Hispanic population (+73.0%) soared.  But Hispanics still only comprise 2.0% of the state's population - and non-Hispanic Blacks and Asians closer to 1% each.  North Dakota's non-Hispanic American Indian population grew by 15.6%.
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cinyc
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« Reply #70 on: March 16, 2011, 05:30:56 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2011, 05:51:58 PM by cinyc »

Tennessee
All but 8 of Tennessee's counties grew.  The net losers were largely small and rural; the biggest net gainers were largely in the Nashville, Knoxville and, to a lesser extent, Chattanooga, Tri-Cities and Memphis areas.

The fastest-growing county in percentage terms was south-Nashville suburban Williamson County (+44.7%).  Williamson's immediate eastern neighbor, Rutherford (+44.3%) was a very close second, picking up the most new residents in the state - over 80,000.  Other Middle Tennesee counties near Nashville followed, including west-Nashville suburban Wilson (+28.4%), Montgomery (Clarksville; +27.9%), northeast-suburban Sumner (+23.1%), north-suburban Robertson (+21.8%), south-exurban Maury County (Spring Hill/Columbia; +16.5%) and Putnam County (Cookeville; +16.1%).  Nashville-Davidson County (+10.0%) grew more slowly that the state as a whole (+11.5%), but picked up more new residents than all but Rutherford County - almost 57,000.

Outside of Middle Tennessee, Sevier County (+26.3%), home of Pigeon Forge, Gatlinburg, Dollywood and some Knoxville suburbs, grew fastest.  In the Knoxville area, south Knoxville-suburban Blount County (+16.2%) and Knox County (+13.1%), home of Knoxville and the University of Tennessee, also experienced double-digit growth.   Elsewhere in the state Washington County (Johnson City/Tri-Cities region; +14.7%) and Bradley County (Cleveland; +12.5%), near Chattanooga, experienced double-digit growth.  Chattanooga's county, Hamilton, grew by 9.3%.  Memphis' county, Shelby, grew by 3.4%. Two of Shelby County's neighbors - Fayette and Tipton - experienced double-digit growth but didn't make the top-20 county list.  Fayette grew by 30% or more.

On the municipal level, Memphis shrunk by 0.5%, or about 3,200 residents.  Nashville-Davidson grew by 10.0%, picking up more residents than any other city in the state, and ending up about 20,200 residents short of passing Memphis.  Nashville-area suburbs grew fastest, particularly those to the city's south, including La Vergne, Rutherford County (+74.4%), Brentwood, Williamson County (+58.1%), Murfreesboro, Rutherford County (+58.0%), Smyrna, Rutherford County (+56.3%) and Franklin, Williamson County (+49.3%).  Hendersonville, Sumner County grew by 26.5%.  The Memphis suburbs of Collierville (+37.9%) and  Bartlett (+34.7%) also experienced rapid growth, as did the Middle Tennessee cities of Clarksville (28.2%) and Cookeville (+27.2%).  Johnson City (+13.9%) grew faster than the state as a whole, while its Tri-Cities colleague, Kingsport (+7.3%) lagged.   Chattanooga (+7.8%) and Knoxville (+2.9%)proper also fell behind the state's growth rate, while the Chattanooga area city of Cleveland (+11.0%) more or less kept pace.

Tennessee's non-Hispanic White population also lagged the state, but grew by 6.5%.  Its Hispanic population more than doubled (+134.2%) to 4.6% of the total population, while    Tennessee's non-Hispanic Asian population grew by a respectable 61.0% to 1.4%.  Tennesse's non-Hispanic black population grew by 13.1%.
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Florida, Georgia and Kentucky have shipped to state legislators, and will be released to the rest of us around 2 PM tomorrow.
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cinyc
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« Reply #71 on: March 16, 2011, 05:55:57 PM »

the smallest growing major county in the state wasn't Shelby though, that was Sullivan (the main Tri-Cities county) at the extreme other end of the state.

True.  

I didn't bother listing the more slowly growing major Tennessee counties or cities - the write-up is long enough, already.  All of the top 20 Tennessee counties gained population.  All of the top 20 municipalities also gained population, except Memphis.  It's not North Dakota.  Also, I missed fast-growing Smyrna in the initial write-up,  That's been fixed.
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cinyc
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« Reply #72 on: March 16, 2011, 07:30:30 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2011, 08:28:55 PM by cinyc »

North Slope Borough, Alaska's gain seems to be due to people declaring residency in Prudhoe Bay, CDP.  The CDP's population grew 43,380%, from 5 residents in 2000 to 2,174 residents in 2010.  The CDP had 47 residents in 1990.   There haven't been any recent estimates.  

I'm not exactly sure what's going on there.  I doubt the CDP has many permanent residents - just oil field workers who rotate out of the area every few weeks.  If they weren't considered residents in 2000, I don't know why they would be in 2010.  Further investigation is required.
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cinyc
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« Reply #73 on: March 16, 2011, 11:25:33 PM »
« Edited: March 16, 2011, 11:27:59 PM by cinyc »

I don't think it's just Somalis, we've had an influx of blacks from Chicago here lately. I'm more interested in the breakdown within Minneapolis and St. Paul really...

North Dakota doesn't surprise me, that Somalis have been drifting to Fargo has been a well known fact there for awhile.

Without taking into account Hispanic status, 19.4% of Minneapolis residents are black.  St. Paul is 16.4% black.

Hennepin and Ramsey Counties are home to about 31% of Minnesota's population and 70% of the state's African-Americans.
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cinyc
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« Reply #74 on: March 17, 2011, 01:02:53 AM »

North Slope Borough, Alaska's gain seems to be due to people declaring residency in Prudhoe Bay, CDP.  The CDP's population grew 43,380%, from 5 residents in 2000 to 2,174 residents in 2010.  The CDP had 47 residents in 1990.   There haven't been any recent estimates.  

I'm not exactly sure what's going on there.  I doubt the CDP has many permanent residents - just oil field workers who rotate out of the area every few weeks.  If they weren't considered residents in 2000, I don't know why they would be in 2010.  Further investigation is required.
It may be that no one was there (at least no one without an address elsewhere) on Census Date 2000. It's not as if migrant workers don't get counted at all - Kodiak Island gets overcounted at every census, and has its Asian population overstated and Native population understated ate every census, thanks to the salmon run.

The oil fields don't stop running on April 1.   I'm sure that more than 5 people were there on April 1, 2000.

A similar thing happened in Red Dog Mine CDP.  Its 2000 population was 32.  Its 2010 population was 309.

Prudhoe Bay CDP, Red Dog Mine CDP in Northwest Arctic Borough, Port Clarence CDP in the Nome census area and Attu Station CDP in Aleutians West Borough all have residents but no households.  The population of the last two areas was in the 20s in both 2000 and 2010, though.
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