I think so. Obviously Murkowski going third party will help. As Joe Miller proved during the primary, it doesn't take a lot of money to compete in such a cheap media market. Miller had a number of weird incidents during the primary and, while no Sharron Angle, could also be more gaffe-prone than Mike Lee over in Utah or whatevsky.
I think it's worth keeping on your watch list, just like I've maintained states like Indiana and Delaware should be kept on your watch list.
Before you comment, at least for the people who actually wish to seriously opine, I strongly suggest reading this and watching this.
1) It's not one cheap media market, it's actually 3 separate, albeit cheap, media markets - Anchorage, Juneau and Fairbanks. It's a big state. The Juneau and Fairbanks stations do tend to simulcast the Anchorage newscasts, IIRC, though.
2) McAdams is the mayor of Sitka. Now, I have nothing against Sitka (never been there), but go look at a map. Find Sitka. Notice how far removed from the rest of the state it is. It's practically Washington State for the folks in Fairbanks. It might help him win the Southeastern panhandle - but Democrats usually do well in the Southeast, anyway. So he might take HD-2 if Sitka outvotes Petersburg and Wrangell and the bush-lite HD-5. Will even Republican-leaning Ketchikan vote for him? Debatable. McAdams is no Mark Beigich - the former mayor of the state's largest city (with a little less than half the state's population) and a member of a famous Alaskan political family.
3) If anything, McAdams would be overshadowed and it would become a two-way race between Murkowski and Miller. The Democrats might be better off if McAdams steps down and let Murkowski run in his stead. But that would probably piss off most of the remaining Republicans willing to vote for a party-switching Murkowski.
