UK Election - Results Thread

[cinyc]

What does St. Silver know about British elections and that stuff?

He knows math, which is all you really need to know to project elections, whether they be in the UK, US or Uzbekistan.  I'm willing to wager Silver will be right and the British models wrong.

[cinyc]

I'm trying to imagine the first result of the 2010 U.S. House election being announced so dramatically...

I think we call Sunderland South Dixville Notch and Hart's Location here during Presidential races.

[cinyc]

There ought to be an inquiry! This is a disgrace!

Oh angry British men.

They'd never have this in Canada since nobody cares to vote anymore.

Canadian turnout in recent elections has been near the historic average since 1935.

[cinyc]

Let's wheel out the C-list celebs!

As the presenter said, "Oh well, we seem to have lost that."

[cinyc]

How does one concoct "notional" results to calculate swings in seats with new boundaries without individual polling place results from the last election?  Anyone know?

I don't know, but could think of a few ways - one just straight-line based on the populations in from a new constituency and those put out.  Or some sort of regression analysis based on the sociodemographic factors in the areas in and out.

Precinct-level data would be best, but it could be done.

[cinyc]

I still think a Tory majority is possible.....am I a dreamer?

Nate Silver thinks so.

[cinyc]

BBC dude says Lucas probably took Brighton Pavilion.

Tracking Cameron's car is incredibly stupid and ridiculous.

It's one step up from chatting up D-list stars, I'd say.

[cinyc]

Lib Dems hold Thornbury & Yate.

4.3% swing from Conservatives to Lib Dems there.

[cinyc]

Labour holds Darlington and Durham North in the North East of England.

[cinyc]

Thornbury and Yate is a BIG deal if that happens across the country Lib Dem ---> Tory

It already was a Lib Dem seat, though.

AND I got the swing backward - it was 4.3% from Lib Dems to CONSERVATIVES, not the other way around.

[cinyc]

Thornbury and Yate is a BIG deal if that happens across the country Lib Dem ---> Tory

The Swing I mean, not a gain of course. 4.3%

Absolutley - if that holds in other places, they'll gain some Liberal Democrat seats.

I got it backwards.  The swing was the other way FROM the LDs to the Tories.

[cinyc]

Democratic Unionists hold Lagan Valley.

[cinyc]

It's not the exit polls.  It's the swing model that's broken.  Nate Silver is probably right about this election.

[cinyc]

It's not the exit polls.  It's the swing model that's broken.  Nate Silver is probably right about this election.

Haven't had time to follow what he was saying about this election - something about swings not being universal?

Yeah.  He has an advanced swingometer, taking into account swings from ALL parties to ALL parties, which suggests the Tories will end up with a majority of 341 seats, based on the extrapolated exit poll numbers.   Time will tell if he's right.

[cinyc]

Durham:

Labour - 20,496
UKIP - 856
Independent - 172

And they interupted it.

LD hold in Fife North East

Durham is  Labour Hold.

0.4% swing from Labour to Lib Dems.

[cinyc]

Batersea swing is 6.5% from Labour to Conservatives

[cinyc]

So, a question for the Americans here- how do you like our election results?

That map on the floor thing was pretty cool, but the rest, ehhhh.

I apologize that we don't have will.i.am being a hologram in the BBC studio.

Nah.  BBC has your D-List celebs in person.

[cinyc]

BTW ITV is vastly superior to the BBC tonight.

Yes, but are they interviewing D-List celebrities?

[cinyc]

Labour 76.  Tories 76.

[cinyc]

Why is this taking so long?  The Canadians, who use first-past-the-post, usually have their results in within a few hours.

[cinyc]

Tories ahead 100-98

[cinyc]

Permanent Tory lead now - 117-105-17

[cinyc]

Interviewing stars of The Apprentice?  Really?  Have BBC run out of D-List celebs to interview?

[cinyc]

Tories take Oxford West.  Majority 176. 6.9% swing.

And the LD's drop another seat as well, Abington. It is a really suck night for the LD's, a veritable disaster vis a vis expectations.

That's the same constituency as Oxford West.  Its full name is Oxford West & Abington.

[cinyc]

Jaquie's gonna cry!

Why is she so special that she gets to give a concession speech on the BBC?