Canada: new apportionment formula?

[cinyc]

FWIW, the optimal size of Parliament under the cube root rule is about 324 (for a population of about 34 million).  The new formula supposedly puts Parliament at about 338 seats, 14 seats over its optimal size under the cube root rule.  The old formula would put Parliament at about 315 seats (+/- a couple) - about 9 seats under the optimal size.  There are currently 308 seats in Parliament.

Every province other than Ontario, Alberta and B.C. benefit from the various grandfather clauses.  In 2001, the provinces of Atlantic Canada benefited more from the Senatorial Clause, which requires that each province have at least as many MPs as Senators.  In 2001, Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and two Atlantic Canadian provinces (Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, IIRC) benefited from the grandfather clause that requires each province to have the same number of MPs as it did in 1985.  The new proposal would create a more equitable representation of Ontario, Alberta and B.C.  

The Bloc is opposes the bill because dilutes Quebec's strength.   The Liberals are in a tricky position - they might annoy some folks in Ontario if they oppose the bill.  Most of the new Ontario ridings would likely be in the 905 belt - usually a Liberal-Conservative battleground area.  The NDP seems to have nothing to lose from having more seats to potentially pick up in B.C. and urban Ontario.  

If it passes, the Conservatives may be able to get to a majority without making further inroads in Quebec.