538.com map

[tokar]

Thanks for doing this.

I like 538.com except for when it gets very hard to distinguish between the lightest of red colors or lightest of blue colors for a tossup state.

Are you just using the "XXXXX +YY.Y, Leans DEM/GOP" below each state in the right column as a means for coloring?

On another note, 9/16 polls have been posted and added to the calculations...so a new map is in order.

[tokar]

The question has become- "When will John McCain squeel like a pig?"

EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[tokar]

October 10th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
NEW MEXICO from LIKELY Obama to LEAN Obama

In Obama's Favor:
KANSAS from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain
KENTUCKY from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain
MAINE from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
NORTH CAROLINA from TOSS-UP to LEAN Obama
NORTH DAKOTA from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
TENNESSEE from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain
WEST VIRGINIA from LEAN McCain to TOSS-UP

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 353
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158
Toss-up: 27

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (+11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (-11)

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%
[/quote]

[tokar]

Kansas
Kentucky
North Dakota
Tennessee

?
Really?

The problem is that the last update from the other guy who did it was October 5th (just look back a page).

So things have changed a bit in 5 days.  There have been 0 polls in those states you just mentioned since the last update, but I think that Nate's model for each state takes the National Tracking Poll into the calculation.  And in 5 days Obama has gained 2-3 points (average) in the tracking polls.

In New Mexico there were a couple weak polls earlier this month at +5...making it a leaner.

I just read the numbers and text for each state on 538.com...no modifications whatsoever.

[tokar]

October 11th
Polls in DE, IA, PA, OH, AL...none of which change anything.  However a new set of national tracking polls seems to have pushed both NM and ME into the Likely DEM column.  Indiana is now shown as being a toss-up, in favor of the GOP, at a margin of +0, thus the reason why it is accounted for as a GOP tally but colored in gray in the bottom map.

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
MAINE from SAFE Obama to LIKELY Obama

In Obama's Favor:
NEW MEXICO from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 353
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158
Toss-up: 27

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

the way it should be....

[tokar]

Quirky site and projections.  Heavily invested in trends and momentum.

the way it should be....

Disagree.  Projections are accurate if election is in the next 48 hours, but it isn't.

You are right because projections cannot account for the unpredictability of a campaign. But they do give a very good snapshot of where the election is currently.

That's what I was getting at.  Agree that NC is play today (more accurately, was 2-4 days ago), but given demographics and current electoral pressures, I think that barring a game changer, Obama is at his apogee in NC and is unlikely to win the state.

eh, you dont live down here.  i do.

there is a very good chance he can win the state.

[tokar]

October 11th
Polls in CA, CO, NV and your standard PA tracking poll.  Doesn't change much in terms of the model.  However Nate adjusted something regarding how the state polling relates to the national polling and that seems to have changed a lot of states.

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
ARIZONA from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
KANSAS from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
KENTUCKY from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
LOUISIANA from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
MISSISSIPPI from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
MONTANA from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain
NORTH DAKOTA from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain
SOUTH CAROLINA from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
SOUTH DAKOTA from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
TENNESSEE from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
TEXAS from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
WEST VIRGINIA from TOSSUP to LEAN McCain

In Obama's Favor:
FLORIDA from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
MAINE from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
MICHIGAN from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
MINNESOTA from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
NEW JERSEY from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
PENNSYLVANIA from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
WISCONSIN from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 353 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (+5)
Toss-up: 22

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 364 (-11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 174 (+11)

Changes in McCain's favor:
Alaska from 6-10 to 10+
Arkansas from 3-6 to 6-10
Arizona from 6-10 to 10+
Indiana from DEM0-3 to GOP0-3
Kansas from 6-10 to 10+
Kentucky from 6-10 to 10+
Louisiana from 3-6 to 6-10
Mississippi from 3-6 to 10+
North Dakota from 3-6 to 6-10
South Carolina from 3-6 to 10+
South Dakota from 3-6 to 10+
Tennessee from 6-10 to 10+
Texas from 6-10 to 10+

Changes in Obama's favor:
Colorado from 3-6 to 6-10
Florida from 0-3 to 3-6
Iowa from 6-10 to 10+
Maine from 6-10 to 10+
Minnesota from 3-6 to 6-10
New Hampshire frmo 3-6 to 6-10
New Jersey from 6-10 to 10+
New Mexico from 3-6 to 6-10
Nevada from 0-3 to 3-6
Oregon from 6-10 to 10+
Pennsylvania from 6-10 to 10+
Virginia from 3-6 to 6-10
Washington from 6-10 to 10+
Wisconsin from 6-10 to 10+

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

FLORIDA from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
MICHIGAN from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
MINNESOTA from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
NEW JERSEY from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
PENNSYLVANIA from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
WISCONSIN from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama

WOW!  if that's true, it's astounding.  Especially with VA, NM and CO also Likely Obama and NC and OH leaning Obama.  I wish it were November 4.

Yeah, Nate remarked how his adjustment made the reds redder and the blues bluer.

So while there were states that moved into stronger Obama territory, there were states which once thought possible pickoffs are now in the stronger McCain territory (MT, ND, etc.).

[tokar]

Please distinguish the congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska in your maps from now on.

i just copied what the guy before did...and if you look at the link of the image it actually accounts for those districts, just for some reason they are not represented in the map.  Regardless, both Maine districts are above 90% (one at 99% and listed as SAFE, the other at 93% and listed as LIKELY), while Nebraska districts are listed at 100%/SAFE for #3, 88%/LIKELY for #1, and 68%/LEAN for #2 (Omaha).

[tokar]

Change "ev_c=0" to "ev_c=1".

thanks.  image updated.

[tokar]

October 13th
I skipped the 12th because there really were no new polls of any significance.
Today brought a bunch of new polls in Obama's favor...too many to list.

Changes
In McCain's Favor:

In Obama's Favor:
Indiana from TOSSUP to LEAN Obama
Maine CD-2 from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
Missouri from TOSSUP to LEAN Obama
Montana from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
Nevada from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
New Mexico from LIKELY Obama to SAFE Obama
North Dakota from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
Ohio from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
South Dakota from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain
West Virginia from LEAN McCain to TOSSUP

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (+22)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158 (-5)
Toss-up: 5 (-17)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (+11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (-11)

Changes in McCain's favor:
Nebraska CD2 from 0-3 to 3-6

Changes in Obama's favor:
Arizona from 10+ to 6-10
Indiana from REP0-3 to DEM0-3
Mississippi from 10+ to 6-10
Nebraska CD1 from 6-10 to 3-6
North Dakota from 6-10 to 3-6
South Carolina from 10+ to 6-10
South Dakota from 10+ to 6-10

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

October 14th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:

In Obama's Favor:


Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158 (NC)
Toss-up: 5 (NC)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 364 (-11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 174 (+11)

Changes in McCain's favor:

Changes in Obama's favor:

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

Daym.

Election-Projection.net has Obama at a 99.8% chance of winning...McCain at a whopping 0.1%.  Unbelievable.

[tokar]

October 17th
It is kind of hard to find any differences with the 538.com map everyday as not much changes day-to-day, especially when the flurry of polls which come out are in states which already favor one candidate or the other.  And, because of the lack of polling in certain states the temperature in these states become more reliant on the National Polling trends (e.g. MT, ND, WV, IN, etc.).  So they just flip back and forth between different categories (toss-up, lean, likely, safe)

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
Indiana from LEAN Obama to LEAN McCain
Mississippi from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
Montana from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain
Nebraska CD2 from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain
Nevada from LIKELY Obama to LEAN Obama
New Mexico from SAFE Obama to LIKELY Obama
North Carolina from LEAN Obama to TOSS-UP
Ohio from LIKELY Obama to LEAN Obama

In Obama's Favor:
Arkansas from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain


Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 360 (-15)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158 (NC)
Toss-up: 20 (+15)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 364 (-11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 174 (+11)

Changes in McCain's favor:
Arizona from 6-10 to 10+
Indiana from DEM0-3 to REP0-3
Michigan from 10+ to 6-10 (just barely, its listed at +9.
Montana from 3-6 to 6-10
Nebraska CD1 from 3-6 to 6-10
Nebraska CD2 from 0-3 to 6-10
North Dakota from 0-3 to 3-6
Ohio from 3-6 to 0-3
South Carolina from 6-10 to 10+
Georgia from 3-6 to 6-10 (just barely, its listed at exactly +6.0)

Changes in Obama's favor:
Arkansas from 6-10 to 3-6

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

October 18th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
Florida from LIKELY Obama to LEAN Obama
North Dakota from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain

In Obama's Favor:


Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 360 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 158 (NC)
Toss-up: 20 (+15)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 364 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 174 (NC)

Changes in McCain's favor:
Nevada from 3-6 to 0-3

Changes in Obama's favor:

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

October 20th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
Arkansas from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain
Louisiana from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
South Dakota from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
West Virginia from TOSS-UP to LIKELY McCain

In Obama's Favor:
North Carolina from TOSS-UP to LEAN Obama

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (+15)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (+5)
Toss-up: 0 (-20)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)

Changes
In McCain's favor:
Arkansas from 3-6 to 6-10
Colorado from DEM6-10 to DEM3-6
Florida from DEM3-6 to DEM0-3
Maine CD2 from DEM10+ to DEM6-10 (just barely, now at 9.8)
Pennsylvania from DEM10+ to DEM6-10 (now at 9.5)
South Dakota from 6-10 to 10+
Virginia from DEM6-10 to DEM3-6 (just barely, now at 5.9)
West Virginia from 0-3 to 3-6

In Obama's favor:
Michigan from 6-10 to 10+ (just barely, now at exactly 10.0)
Montana from GOP6-10 to GOP3-6 (just barely, now at 5.9)

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

Either Missouri should be blue on the bottom map or the numbers are wrong... the maps are identical, the totals are off by 11.

I think you are right ...they are identical maps in terms of ECV.

I just updated the numbers.

[tokar]

October 21th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:

In Obama's Favor:
Louisiana from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)
Toss-up: 0 (NC)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)

Changes
In McCain's favor:
Michigan from DEM10+ to DEM6-10
Montana from 3-6 to 6-10
West Virginia from 3-6 to 6-10

In Obama's favor:
Georgia from GOP6-10 to GOP3-6
Virginia from 3-6 to 6-10

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

Seems like the race is starting to swing back around. Could be good news if McCain peaks around election day.

Only because it was unrealistic for anyone to believe that Obama would maintain +10 average national numbers.  Nate's model takes the National Tracker Average into account when projecting each state.  It has a profound effect on leaner states (see Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, North Dakota, South Dakota, etc.).

Without sufficient polling in states, the state starts to depend more on the National tracker average.  With the current lull in Pennsylvania polling, except for the lowly weighted Muhlenberg tracker, the older +13 to +15 polls lose the weight they once had and the projection starts to lean more on the national tracker average for its projected margin.
This is why Pennsylvania is still considered a "SAFE DEM" but the margin of victory has fallen by about 1.5 points off its max.  The same situation is occurring in Michigan and Minnesota (both continue to be Safe Dems but projected margin of victory has dropped like a point off its recent max).  Eventually the model will flat line (assuming no added polling)...

Is there a McCain swing in my opinion?  No.  It is just the national tracker poll average starting to show the numbers it should be showing (+10 Obama from a week ago was a little excessive in anyone's opinion).

[tokar]

October 22nd

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
West Virginia from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain

In Obama's Favor:


Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)
Toss-up: 0 (NC)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 163 (NC)

Changes
In McCain's favor:

In Obama's favor:
South Dakota from GOP10+ to GOP6-10

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

October 23rd

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
Arkansas from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain

In Obama's Favor:
Indiana from LEAN McCain to LEAN Obama
Montana from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
Nebraska CD1 from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
Nebraska CD2 from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
North Dakota from LIKELY McCain to LEAN McCain
Ohio from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama
South Dakota from SAFE McCain to LIKELY McCain

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 386 (+11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 152 (-11)
Toss-up: 0 (NC)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 386 (+11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 152 (-11)

Changes
In McCain's favor:

In Obama's favor:
Colorado from 3-6 to 6-10
Indiana from GOP0-3 to DEM0-3
Maine CD2 from 6-10 to 10+
Michigan from 6-10 to 10+
Minnesota from 6-10 to 10+
Montana from GOP6-10 to GOP3-6
Nebraska CD1 from GOP6-10 to GOP3-6
Nebraska CD2 from GOP6-10 to GOP3-6
North Dakota from GOP3-6 to GOP0-3
Ohio from 0-3 to 3-6
Pennsylvania from 6-10 to 10+

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

Hey man, dont complain to people on here.  Go complain to Nate...

See the problem is that Nate wont answer you because he is swamped with emails...so it looks like you are going to have to live with it.

[tokar]

October 24th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
Indiana from LEAN Obama to TOSS-UP
Montana from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain (...538.com has it as McCain +4.0)
Ohio from LIKLEY Obama to LEAN Obama
South Dakota from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain

In Obama's Favor:

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (-11)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 152 (NC)
Toss-up: 11 (+11)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 386 (0)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 152 (0)

Changes
In McCain's favor:
Colorado from DEM6-10 to DEM3-6 (just barely at +5.9)
North Dakota from 0-3 to 3-6
New Hampshire from DEM6-10 to DEM3-6 (just barely at +5.
Pennsylvania from DEM10+ to DEM6-10 (just barely at +9.7)

In Obama's favor:

0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%

[tokar]

October 25th

Changes
In McCain's Favor:
Louisiana from LIKELY McCain to SAFE McCain
Nebraska CD1 from LEAN McCain to LIKELY McCain

In Obama's Favor:
Ohio from LEAN Obama to LIKELY Obama

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 375 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 152 (NC)
Toss-up: 11 (NC)

Snapshot

Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden: 386 (NC)
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 152 (NC)

Changes
In McCain's favor:
Maine CD2 from DEM10+ to DEM6-10 (just barely at +9.9)
Minnesota from DEM10+ to DEM6-10 (just barely at +9.8)
Nebraska CD1 from 3-6 to 6-10
South Dakota from 6-10 to 10+ (just barely at +10.2)

In Obama's favor:
Colorado from 3-6 to 6-10 (just barely at +6.1)
New Hampshire from 3-6 to 6-10


0-3 point lead = 30%, 3-6 point lead = 40%, 6-10 point lead = 60%, 10+ point lead = 80%