Looks like PA was the tipping point state

[tokar]

According to the PA elections website, 100% of 100% precincts are reporting. The numbers are greater than what USElectionAtlas has.

ROMNEY, MITT (REP)      2,668,122   46.7%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)   2,976,902   52.1%
A margin of 5.4%.

Colorado is also showing 5.4%. So I had to go down to the exact percent.

Pennsylvania - 5.402%
Colorado - 5.403%

Wow...so close!

Regarding PA vote total:
2012 - 5,715,895 votes (including 3rd party votes).
2008 - 6,015,476 votes
2004 - 5,769,590 votes

I was talking with a friend of mine who, when I told him that there were 300,000 fewer votes this year in PA, attributed the drop to the turnout/excitement which did not match 2008. He then asked how the number compared to 2004. When I told him the vote count was less than 2004 he was quite a bit perplexed.

I bring up the vote totals because I think the 300,000 vote drop is a bit odd. I'm not suggesting tampering of the numbers or the sort. I personally expected fewer votes in all states since excitement would not match 2008 levels, but not to the tune of 300,000 votes in PA. My personal guess is the misinformation with voter ID. I understand that there was a concerted effort to confuse voters about the voter ID law (through TV ads and the sort), even though it was put on hold. I am guessing a considerable number of voters thought the ID law was in place and did not vote.

If you have a Huntsman/Christie ticket in 2016, Pennsylvania could follow NJ example and tip into the GOP column.

First, Christie will have to survive the primary. Scratch that, first he needs to declare. Call me in 2 years.

[tokar]

Could PA be in play at some point in the not too distant future? Looking at some of the #s it was leaning left by around 5 points 8 years ago (Kerry won it by 2.5 points but lost the election by 2.46). This time around it's only leaning left by around 2 points and the GOP has made some huge gains in the western part of the state, bordering WV and OH. Places like Greene, Fayette, Washington and Westmoreland County have shifted to the GOP by 20-28 points over the last 12 years. Are these places too small to make much of a dent or could the GOP in PA replicate some of the success it's been having in neighboring WV?

No. Republicans will continue to convince themselves that they can make a legitimate play for Pennsylvania, but they have no shot.

Demographics of Philadelphia:
1.53 mil people (1.526 as of 2010 census)
44.2% Black (they went democratic 96-4, country-wide exit poll)
12.5% Hispanic (they went democratic 71-27, country-wide exit poll)
5.4% Asian (they went democratic 74-26, country-wide exit poll)

Check out my post from a week ago or so:
link

Quick TL;DR summary of the post:
In 2008, Philadelphia ALONE covered the vote margin in all Republican-won counties, and then some (477.7k to 317.9k)
In 2012, Philadelphia missed the margin of all Republican-won counties by 10k (467.2k to 477.k), but of course there were enough Democratic counties to cover that 10k margin (Allegheny provided an 88.9k margin).

The state is becoming increasingly dependent on the margins in Philadelphia. The whole area around Philadelphia continuously increases its % total of the statewide vote.
1992 - 33.07%
1996 - 32.13%
2000 - 32.42%
2004 - 33.08%
2008 - 33.69%
2012 - 34.21%

And these five counties are becoming more democratic. The individual county results are not representative of this trend (e.g. Philadelphia went 88.4% DEM in 2008, 82% in 2012), but the overall sum of the five counties is:
% DEM Vote
1992 - 51.22%
1996 - 58.07%
2000 - 61.34%
2004 - 62.87%
2008 - 66.36%
2012 - 65.21%

It is pretty difficult for Republicans to make up the vote margins in the rest of the state when 33% of the state votes 66% democratic (and this is not including the democratic bastions of Allegheny, Luzerne, Erie...there are several other Democratic counties, but these three go Dem+10 or more and have 100,000 votes...Allegheny has 600,000+ votes and goes DEM+15).

(Keep in mind that I am only referring to GENERAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS...off-years give Democrats problems in PA).

Sure, you could argue that Christie might affect the vote in PA a bit should he be the GOP nominee in 2016, but I would argue that he wouldn't alter it all that much. For one, PA isn't NJ, and when I was living in PA he was not even on the radar of most Pennsylvanians (I'm sure most people aren't even aware of who he is). Sure, his publicity skyrocketed in the last month, but PA has its own Republican governor to worry about and he is a POS.

[tokar]

Interesting stuff, thanks for your insights. What's the story with Dauphin County btw? Voted for Bush by 9 and now for Obama by around 6. Similar story in Monroe County which voted for Bush twice but was won by Obama by around 13 points. Just a better get out the vote effort by the Democrats?

It seems something has fundamentally changed, as those two counties went Republican from 1992 through 2004.

My pull-it-out-of-my-ass answer with Dauphin is that it is experiencing the usual city effect considering Harrisburg is the biggest city in Central PA for miles (hell, they made a movie based in Harrisburg: Lucky Numbers) . Dauphin encompasses a considerable part of Harrisburgh, ranked 9th by Population in PA (49.5k). Population inside the city limits went up (estimated from the 2010 census) for the first time in a long time (albeit marginally). However, the metro area population went up a bit more considerably over a 10 year period, 509k to 549k, 8% (higher than the state-wide rate of 3.53%. Side note, Philadelphia metro growth was 4.9% over the same 10 year period).

As far as Monroe goes...I have no clue. It is bordered by heavy republican counties in New Jersey on the East, and a couple heavy republican PA counties to the North, along with some heavy Democratic counties in PA to the Northwest and South. There are no major cities in the county (Stroudsburg? pssh please).