What 2000 states are you most worried about your canidate losing?

[classical liberal]

Until China unionizes, manufacturing jobs won't come back here.  However, by the time China unionizes everything will be mechanized so the jobs won't really come home; the only jobs that will be left are those that require creativity/ingenuity, and require college education or vocational training.

I'm most worried eabout OH and VA.  To a lesser extent WV and NH but we don't need those: the House would select Bush over Kerry anyday.  The entire "North" only elects any Republicans because we still are fiscally conservative.  However, Bush isn't so he may loose the three northern states on that alone.  Virginia is pretty much MD and WV combined nowdays.  If Kerry takes WV he'll pobably take VA, he has no chance in MD.  Then we're screwed unless we take PA.  However the old conservative suburbs are trending Democratic after 30 years are GOP stringholds.  That's how MD, CA, NJ, etc switched.  If the process continues GA, NC, OH, IN, NV, and AZ will follow soon, but probably not till 08.

Our time of dominance in the Presidential arena is drwaing to a close, I just hope that we can squeeze out one last victory before the Dems take over.

[classical liberal]

Not just the DC suburbs.  All suburbs across the nation.  Bush won the Utah second with like 55%.  Regan won Salt Lake City with like 85%.  Same with the Nebraska second.  Same with the Kansas third, the Oklahoma second, and the Oklahoma third.  The Virginia first, second and tenth too.  In 15 years we've lost roughly 30% in all suburbs.  That's like 2% a year, 8% an election cycle.

[classical liberal]

By all I meant all across the country, not everywhere withing 2 hours of a city.  By suburb I meant that the area is within an hour off-peak of the city's beltway/beltline/bypass/whatever.  Two to three counties out from the city line, no farther.

[classical liberal]

Loudon County, VA went 85% for Regan.  It'll go 45% to Bush this time.  2000 was the last time that the GOP will win Fairifax County, VA.  Bush may win Virginia Beach in 04 but if so only with like 45%.  It's a national trend.  The GOP has lost a lot of ground in suburbs.  Gun control, immigration and the like.

[classical liberal]

Suburbs are getting increasingly socially liberal as time passes.  Maybe because of Columbine, or more recently because of the kid who brought 11 home-made bombs and a shot gun to his high school in Omaha last month, but in any case its happening.

[classical liberal]

You're shading your map for %'s?

[classical liberal]

It would however not be wrong to conclude that Virginia is trending liberal through observation of the media and demographics.  The DC Metro area contains roughly 30% of the state's population.  Bush won the VA portion of the DC metro area in 2000 by like an aggregate 7%.  This time he's going to loose it by like 5%.  That's a 12% shift in like 1/3, or a 4% shift in the overall.  VA will be close this time.

[classical liberal]

Rural NOVA has like 5% of the state's population.  I really don't see Bush winning the same kind of margins he had in 2000 in the Hampton Roads area again this time.  He may squeak by with 50.01% or something but definately not the 55% he had in 2000 in some counties.

[classical liberal]

The GOP probably won't spend anything at all in VA.  The Dems will.  With Gov. Warner's machine's GOTV in Southern VA and the Dems' surprisingly extant ad campaign in NOVA, the turnout and the shifting philosophy in the DC metro area from the Old South to the New England Corridor will screw the GOP.  Todays Post had an article about the demographic changes and the massive growth in NOVA.  Plus the Coal country in SW VA that will come back to the Dems with W VA coal country.

[classical liberal]

on the presidential level, dems in virginia can count on:
1. the coalfields
2. the black vote in southeast va
3. the dc suburbs

Bush won regions 1 and 3 in 2000.  Without them he will loose.

[classical liberal]

on the presidential level, dems in virginia can count on:
1. the coalfields
2. the black vote in southeast va
3. the dc suburbs

Gore underperformed in 1

If by underperformed you mean lost then sure.  Gore lost the coalmines and the DC suburbs.

[classical liberal]

When I say Bush won the coalmines I mean that Bsuh won VA-9, the coalmine region with like 54%.