He'll do approximately as well as the other guy named Kirk who ran for an open Senate seat in the President's home state in his first midterm election.
If he gets 45% I will be happy.
As was previously stated, challenging seats isn't just about winning, its about forcing Dems to spend money in Highly Dem areas. Like CT and ILL. Take Dodd for example. The guy is a 5 term incumbent on a powerful committee. The Dems will be pushing as many millions into CT as they can cause the embarrassment of losing such a powerfull Dem and the subsequent Spin would be damaging beyond belief. Same thing goes as to why we should go after Reid with anybody we can find. You have 20 Millions dollars sitting somewhere in the oppositions hand you don't want it spread around you want it kept there. While they are spending millions to help save ILL, CT, NV and PA we will have better chance in OH, NH(If Ayotte runs), NC, and CO as well as picking off one or two of the first four I mentioned. Thats what the Dems did in 2006 and 2008. Its what we used to know how to do as well prior to that.
