538: MO, NH, KY Most Likely Seats to Flip

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

McConnell suffered because he supported the financial bailout.

It'll still be close, but I wouldn't put any money on a Democrat against Trey Grayson

Plus there might have an anti congressional leadership thing going. Glad to see NC so far down even below Delaware, Nevada, and Colorado.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Issue
 Democrats
 Republicans
 
Health Care
 47%
 37%
 
Education
 44%
 37%
 
Social Security
 43%
 37%
 
Abortion
 41%
 41%
 
Economy
 39%
 45%
 
Taxes
 39%
 44%
 
Iraq
 37%
 45%
 
Nat'l Security
 36%
 51%
 
Gov't Ethics
 29%
 35%
 
Immigration
 29%
 43%
 
The top issues to keep and eye on are the Economy and Gov't ethics(this issue help destroy the GOP, if you see the GOP starting to lead continously they may be able to reclaim the same reform mantle that they had in the 90's. A good way to attract Independents. The GOP is recovering is natural and historic lead on NAtional Security. If the Republicans have become identified as the party of Anti-Amnesty then there strong support on Immigration is a good sign, if its the product of confusion then that will not be of any help. Its a good morale boost to have the GOP lead on Iraq but to few care about it to make a real difference. The first three are strange and I think represent a bit of anxiety and impatience for reforms.

The problem with RAsmussen is the methodology does not account for the changes made to the electorate in 2008 as much as other firms methodology does, however I think the turnout in 2010 is going to be closer to that of 2006 in terms of composition, so Rasmussen may be closer to the truth then other firms. This explains why there Approval ratings are less favorable as well, meaning they may be accurate in 2010 but end up like they did in 2000 in 2012.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Issue
 Democrats
 Republicans
 
Health Care
 47%
 37%
 
Education
 44%
 37%
 
Social Security
 43%
 37%
 
Abortion
 41%
 41%
 
Economy
 39%
 45%
 
Taxes
 39%
 44%
 
Iraq
 37%
 45%
 
Nat'l Security
 36%
 51%
 
Gov't Ethics
 29%
 35%
 
Immigration
 29%
 43%

The bold ones surprise me. Does the party out of power historically do better in government ethics?

Yes and if it becomes a big national issues it becomes a big help in elections. Also it is an indicator of whether or not the people think Pelosi lived up to her promises of running the most honest, ethical congress in history, and it appears they don't think so. But it won't have a big effect unless you see a wave of scandals that push this issue to the top two or three concerns.