You want to really change history, have Napoleon wipe out the Russians at Borodino.
Yes, you're right. So, what happens if Napoleon wins at Borodino?
I'll give this a shot: without the threat of the Russian army, Napoleon might've done the same thing he did in real life and wait to leave the ruins of Moscow until it was almost too late. However, without the Russian military hounding his forces the entire walk back, many, many more members of the Grand Armee survive the retreat. Russia is knocked out of the war, with Borodino on the heels of Austerlitz humiliating and discrediting Tsar Alexander. Despite the annoying British general Wellington leading the Spaniards to victory in the Peninsular War, the other powers of Europe are cowed by Napoleon's domination. Austria, Prussia, and Russia are now too disheartened to continue resisting, and Napoleon tightens the Continental System, cutting the UK even further off from the rest of Europe.
Finally, Metternich in now-neutral Austria (with Napoleon a Habsburg in-law) proposes a peace conference in Vienna in 1814 to negotiate a permanent peace between France and Britain and reorganize a map. France's Dalmatian Territories become the Kingdom of Dalmatia to give Joseph Bonaparte a consolation prize for the loss of Spain. Louis, brother of Louis XVI, the last Bourbon King of France, is made King Luis of Spain as a consolation prize, throwing the Spanish branch of the Bourbon family out completely (and causing much feuding). UK agrees to terms that recognize British claims to its overseas territories (France makes no claim on Quebec) and its own autonomy in exchange for recognizing French supremacy on the continent and pledging not to enter into any anti-French alliances.
Giving Louis XVIII Spain would have been a huge mistake. The French "Legitimiste" Bourbon Dynasty was dying. That is clear when you consider that Louis XVI's son died in Jail and Louis XVIII didn't have a son and Charles X's son died childless by 1883. Putting them on the throne would have caused chaos. Especially when you consider, that were it not for Phillippe V's renounciation of the French Succession in 1720, the Spanish Bourbon dynasty would have inhereited France in 1883 had the Revolution never occured. It also would not have been a smart move to deprive Ferdinand of the throne after so much propaganda had been used to legitimise him in the Peninusla war. Had the Revolution never occured Louis XVIII never would have been anything but the brother and later uncle of the King and nothing more and so thats how it would have remained.
When Napoleon returned in 1814 he returned as the defender of the gains of the Revolution(sale of church lands, abolishing or the tithes and siegnurialism). He was committed to being a constitutional monarch cause anything else would have guarrenteed permenent ouster for him. He was also committed to ruling just France. At first the English wavered but Talleyrand was able to convince each allied nation to commit I beleive 200,000 men to crusing Napoleon. For a total of 800,000. Napoleon had just 200,000 at his comand.
Napoleon could not have won at Waterloo. Even if he had released the Imperial Guard earlier and broken Wellington's center, he still had the Prussian Army on his right flank. If a few days earlier Napoleon had ordered Gruchy to march at dawn and attack the Prussian' he could have at least gotten a good idea where the Prussian's were. Instead he moved too slow and it was afternoon before he got moving and by then the Prussian had put some distance between them and allowed them to move closer to Wellington undetected. Thats were it could have gone differently. I would have attacked the Prussians when I knew where they were and concentrate heavilly on the right flank hoping to drive to Liege and there base of supplies. Then moved on too Wellington. Overall Napoleon had aged and he lacked the sense of what the exact critical moment of a battle was. When he did release the Guard they ran into reinforced troups, instead of the the weakened force they had done battle with earlier, b/c Napoleon hessitated. Also Ney was moving unquestionably slow as well.
