onward to 2010 (because it's never too early)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If we can get McConnell within 6% with a crappy candidate and a black Muslim terrorist at the top of the ticket, we can take Bunning's seat.

Bunning-Chandler will be the Marque Senate race of 2010. Ben Chandler has been waiting for another chance at a state wide race and he passed up McConnell fearing he was unbeatable so I say there is a 75% Chandler runs and a 55% he beats Bunning.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

solid Dem

Arkansas - Lincoln (Arkansas GOP LOL!!)
Connecticut - Dodd (he might retire, but I don't think so.  IIRC that was a ploy so he could transfer money to his prez campaign or something like that)
Delaware - special (Beau Biden?)
Indiana - Bayh (unless Dan Quayle has a kid)
Maryland - Mikulski (old but, yeah)
Massachusetts - special (if Kerry gets the SoS he is reportedly angling for... I heard Patrick & Co. want to change the law so he can appoint Kerry's successor if need be...  the only guy who may have problems winning such a race would be Barney Frank, and he does have statewide ambition, but I doubt he is the guy and I also can't imagine MA sending a Republican to Washington nor would I have a clue who that guy could be.  Joel Mahoney?)
Massachusetts - special II (good shot old Teddy doesn't make it this far...)
New York - Schumer (his for life unless he screws a hooker bareback like bro Spitzer)
North Dakota - Dorgan (gonna be 68 so he probz will run)
Oregon - Wyden
Vermont - Leahy (longest tenured Senate Dem by then, if Kennedy passes and after Biden's resignation?)

potentially competitive Dem tilt

California - Boxer (probably safe but she isn't overly popular.  though I doubt any Republican could take her down, but, who knows)
Colorado - Salazar
Hawaii - Inouye (he's gonna be mad old and Lingle is popular, but would they send a Republican to Washington?  have they ever?  [rhetorical, but maybe it isn't])
Illinois - sorta open but not really (Jackson, Jr. would have trouble winning statewide and I feel like it will be him [as Sam Spade said, Blago is likely to make the worst pick possible].  I also feel as if he will feel pressure to pick a black)
Nevada - Reid (maybe safe but I like to be careful about this kind of stuff.  Reid could be tarred if the Dem government is perceived as a failure, as he is the face of the Dem Senate)
Washington - Murray
Wisconsin - Feingold

likely competitive

Arizona - McCain (I tend to think he will retire, making this perhaps the premier Dem pickup opportunity in an area of the country heading towards them hard.  even if he doesn't, Napolitano could take him, though I have no idea at all if she'd want it)
Florida - Martinez (should be a fun race if the Dems can find someone good.  Cuban-baiting will continue to get harder and harder for the GOP as Castro fades into obscurity, and Martinez can tied to the national GOP as chairman and all, which I don't expect to be rehabilitated by default by 2010)
Missouri - Bond
New Hampshire - Gregg
Ohio - Voinovich (Ryan beats him, imo.  not sure about anyone else)

potentially competitive Republican tilt

Georgia - Iskason (approvals aren't amazing but who knows)
Iowa - Grassley (kinda old, but wins if he runs, which he may well)
Kentucky - Bunning (he has said that he is running again.  maybe he is just senile enough to lose this time around?  alleged homo Mongiardo almost did it last time...)
North Carolina - Burr (cursed seat, remember)
Pennsylvania - Specter (should be mad fun... maybe this belongs in the prior category, but I'll stick it here)

safe Republican

Alabama - Shelby
Alaska - Murkowski (screw Alaska)
Idaho - Crapo ( that name, and always have)
Louisana - Vitter (too few blacks and his repentance has been accepted by the Jesusites as far as I can tell for the hooker-diaper ordeal)
Oklahoma - Coburn (I kind like the dude too )
South Carolina - DeMint
South Dakota - Thune
Utah - Bennett (and he will have my support)

---------------------------------------------------------------------


some of these may be horribly off, but it's just to generate discussion.  I feel like I was a little Dem-biased unintentionally but perhaps the playing field just shakes out that way)

You forgot one
West Virginia-Special Election. Lets face it Robert Byrd is in bad condition and he may not be around this time next year. Given how WV has shifted to the GOP over the years and with the Filibuster on the line I would say this would be a good pick-up opportunity for the GOP espcially if Shelley Moore Capito(R-WV) runs. Even though I don;t like Byrd that much I think he will be a big loss to the Senate.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I got a name today for the Senate seat here in PA. I won't say who it is or what party he/she belongs to but it's someone that has been mentioned for another office. I'll give one hint: young.

Was it that Buchanan women that was mentioned as a potential candidate for PA-03 Phil?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also the idea that Arlen Specter was required to win in PA is laughable

The assumption was that Philly burbs trending D was happening but the rest of the state would not shift Republican. Thus for a Republican to win, their only path was the old path, win the Philly burbs counties, which Specter did in 2004.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

And man does seeing my posts from 2008 make me feel old. I was only on the forum three months at that point.