Suffolk: FL/OH bellwether county polls: Scott +1 in Volusia; Brown +15 in Clark

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Scott's only winning Volusia by one he's in deep trouble.

A county Trump won by 13 and Scott is only "up" 1...yikes

Scott won it by 4 in 2014 while winning statewide by 1, so it's not an outlandish choice.

Yeah, Scott has more Latino support than Trump, so he can definitely win with a smaller margin in Volusia by not getting shellacked as much in Miami-Dade.

It should also be noted that Nelson has historical strength in this area as well. His old congressional district was based around neighboring Brevard County.

In 2000, when it went to Gore by about 8%, Nelson won it by 13%, while winning statewide by only 5% 
In 2006. Nelson got 60% statewide and 63% in Volusia
In 2012, Nelson performed about a point better in Volusia than statewide.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Scott ended up winning Volusia by 10 points. Brown lost Clark by 2 points. This is why you don't poll single counties, ladies and gents.

I would point out that the poll conducted of bellweather counties in 2016 was very helpful in gauging the level of support Trump had in the rust belt that state level polls missed. It showed he had massive leads in Luzerne, PA and Sandusky Ohio and those proved to be accurate.