State Political Evolution

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This was the second half of a post I was making in the "What should be GOP economics" thread, but I split off and now am going to make a thread based on it's topic since it largely focuses on why states evolve politically. It also augments the generational theory of politics, with certain contextual understandings regarding not just age groups, but who they are and where they are.

Before Trump ever came on the seen, we had trends demonstrated in the 2014 exit polling that sunbelt belt younger millenials/early Zers are solidly Democratic. Whether it is SC, GA, MS, LA, CO or TX, the numbers for the presently GOP or former states in the Sunbelt are horrendous. Adam Griffin mapped this somewhere, but I am assuming the thread it was in got deleted since I cannot seem to find it.

The Trump map and the 2016 trends are an acceleration of those generational based trends. These trends exist for largely 3 reasons that people don't comprehend.

1. Racial/Ethnic/Religious Demographic Changes
2. Higher College Education Rate
3. Generational Rebellion - Against either the Parents or the Party that dominates said State.

We have seen this before as high end Republican suburbs turn into high end latte Liberal suburbs. Just like in CA, the same is happening in the South. I once joked to Benconstine, when he said "we stole your suburban voters" that no "You buried them and stole their children".

Yes the older generation starts it by voting Dem for Clinton in 1992 or Obama in 2008, but they still vote Republican down ballot (Specter and Republican Judges winning Philly Suburbs into the 2000's), it is their children that don't split their tickets.

If this sounds familiar, it is how the South evolved. The Greatest Generation voters who voted for Ike, Nixon and Reagan, still voted Democratic down ballot. The Silents less so, and The Baby Boomers went hog wild Republican as did Gen X. So it is not until the 1990's and 2000's when state legislatures flip and Congressional delegations.

In 2016 we saw exit polling in many heretofore Democratic states, showing Trump doing well or even winning the youngest cohort of voters (MN, ME, PA, WI etc). And some previously existing GOP States as well like KY and MO I think.

What is driving this is in my opinion the above factors.

1. In these states, those younger voters are much less diverse compared to the national picture for that group.
2. In the rural areas and small towns of those states, there will be a heavy skew towards non-college because college educated whites tend to not return to those areas.
3. Their parents are probably Democrats and their states have for a while leaned Democratic. They probably don't vote in off year elections, which is the specials and such in Minnesota reverted to normal as the rurals who abnormally voted for Trump, who are older reverted to form (restoring the tradition margins). If history is any guide, their kids will not do likewise.


Now you can tear this apart or use the on coming Sanders revolution to prove that the current dynamics will completely invert over night and WV will be solid Dem and NOVA will start being Republican again. But generally speaking I don't think these changes happen from the top down. I think these changes occur naturally and the parties react to them, not the other way around.