State polls by age (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 24, 2024, 09:31:11 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process
  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  State polls by age (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: State polls by age  (Read 4642 times)
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
North Carolina Yankee
Moderators
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 54,118
United States


« on: October 15, 2017, 12:01:05 AM »

The exit polls are reasonably accurate, and there are a couple strong trends:

-The age gap is much smaller in states that trended towards Trump and much larger in states that trended towards Clinton.  This is particularly evident in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Maine, which all had some form of "reverse age gaps", with youngs being more Republican than olds.

-The age gap is also much smaller in very white states and larger in states with lots of minorities (particularly lots of Hispanics).  What is likely happening is that, in very white states, the youngest voters are a lot more demographically similar to the oldest ones (it may also be true in states like Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas, where the white-black ratio has pretty much remained constant and that have no real trendy areas, although none of those were exit polled).  In states like Arizona and Texas, even if the youngest whites voted exactly like the oldest whites, there would still be a pretty significant age gap due to demographics, so that is important to keep in mind.

I would love to see accurate data breaking down MS Whites down by age.

MS Whites 65 and up are probably voting close to 90% Republican, while those under 50 are probably in the mid 60's.

I ran some numbers the other day. Just a slight 5% increase in AA turnout, and Whites voting 75% Republican!, would put the Republicans below 50% in MS.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 13 queries.