IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Change Research has IN-9 as Braun+9 and IN-5 as Donnelly+5.

Besides that being a funny coincidence, how does that compare to the 2012 race? 

IN-05 is a traditionally Republican area but it is that same old story of GOP Struggling with college educated white suburbs. Braun doesn't really offend these people the way that Mourdoch did, though. The big unknown that will determine this race, is do enough of these people come home or not to the GOP.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

People underestimated Braun on this site. 


I have made the comparison that Braun is a lot like David Perdue.
1. Both were business not politicians, but both had some controversial business decisions to defend
2. Both were from the Southern parts of their states.
3. Both were viewed as good candidates for the traditional but slipping away GOP suburbs around the major city
4. Both had come from behind to defeat Representatives in the primary.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Braun's lead is down to 5.9%. By the end, probably around 5%. Not a horrible margin for Donnelly, it's too bad he couldn't make up that last 5%.

If Donnelly wouldn't have promised to vote with Trump on immigration, it's likely he would have gotten higher turnout in East Chicago (known as "The Latino Gary" in Lake County) and Indianapolis, as well as among liberal youth and women.

Yeah, I remember seeing a news report of him saying he would consider voting with Trump on birthright citizenship. The second I saw that I figured he was done for.

He would've done worse other places, so it probably didn't make much of a difference.

Keep in mind this strategy actually used to work in the late 2000's. Bev Perdue ran radio ads in the last week about cracking down on illegals in 2008 Governor's race. McCrory was using it as a wedge issue to flip rural voters while trying to remain a Charlotte moderate otherwise (basically Romney style). It actually worked and Perdue held onto a lot of ancestral Democrats who voted for McCain over Obama, while McCrory ran 10% almost head of McCain in Mecklenburg County.

The reason why the strategy no longer works is because one of the two parties have firmed up the issue and thus the voters who care about this issue know who to vote for. Also Donnelly voted for the comprehensive bill in 2013, so he would have a tough time selling that line to these voters if they paid attention to it to begin with, which they probably did not because they have found their Presidential champion in Trump and Trump told them to vote for Braun, which they thus did.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also on the same point, just like regardless of whether not Mike Coffman and Barbara Comstock had hugged Trump or punched him in the face they were more than likely going to lose because of hostile demographics and the surge of anti-GOP turnout in those districts. The same applies to the likes of Donnelly, McCaskil and Heitkamp because they were facing hostile demographics in an election where Trump managed to turn out his base. Either way they would have lost and probably lost more if they had gone down that path of embracing the party's new position on this issue.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also on the same point, just like regardless of whether not Mike Coffman and Barbara Comstock had hugged Trump or punched him in the face they were more than likely going to lose because of hostile demographics and the surge of anti-GOP turnout in those districts. The same applies to the likes of Donnelly, McCaskil and Heitkamp because they were facing hostile demographics in an election where Trump managed to turn out his base. Either way they would have lost and probably lost more if they had gone down that path of embracing the party's new position on this issue.

I have to wonder what would've happened if Kavanaugh never became a thing. Like, Trump nominates a relatively uncontroversial judge like Gorsuch that McCaskill and Donnelly unceremoniously vote for. Maybe it wouldn't have been enough for them to win, but maybe they would've been the nailbiters we were expecting them to be. And it probably would've saved Bill Nelson (assuming he loses.)

Its possible since controversy drives energy and passion and we know how much this President and his base loves controversy.