What early results tomorrow will cause you to freakout?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'd have a cat5 melt down if
-Florida was 50% in and Trump was up 2% at 8:30pm est
And -PA was 10% in and Trump was up about the same at that time.

Hillary can't win and lose PA without Florida.

Latter is impossible. Philly counts first. If Trump wins the state, it'll be a gradual comeback throughout the night after massively trailing early on. That's what happened in the 2010 Senate race.

Sestak 74 Toomey 26, was where the night started if memory serves me.

Not just Philly, but Democratic areas as well in many of the counties. For instance Crawford's first returns came back with Sestak ahead and in true Atlas panic first fashion, people ran with that to the bank to assume Sestak had won. However, by the time the county finished, Toomey had won it 61-39, which while soft was right where he needed to be.

So when people look at key counties, make sure they are complete or near complete before drawing conclusions.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Judging by NCYankee's post, Trump taking an early lead in North Carolina would have me petrified.

Hagan was leading by as much as 7% or so. And in fact her lead actually increased to her peak around 30% in, which led many on CNN to talk about her likely winning, only for her lead to rapidly evaporate to a tie around 80% reporting or so and Tillis ultimately won by 1%.

I am regretting having re-watched CNN's 2014 coverage so long ago now (August) because I cannot remember all the states.


Trump has to start in the mid 60s to have a chance in GA/VA and he has to remain above 60% as long as possible, because those leads rapidly decline between 50% reporting and 90% reporting as Atlanta/NOVA roll in.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

IN isn't stable at all. Mourdock was leading for quite a while early on in 2012.

Really?

I was thinking more of 2008 where I seemed to recall McCain up by one or two and then it settled two or three points towards the Democrats.

Compared to VA which goes from 65% GOP to 51% Dem over the course of that or PA where it went from 26% Toomey to 51% Toomey, IN is very stable by comparison.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

GA and VA - Republicans come in first.
PA, NC, IA - Democrats come in first.


IN is relatively stable throughout the election.

One thing to consider, Indiana will start reporting results at 6:00 PM, but nobody is going to call it until 7:00 PM when the last sliver of the state closes. So a good chunk of the results will be in when they do call it.

IN isn't stable at all. Mourdock was leading for quite a while early on in 2012.

Really?

I was thinking more of 2008 where I seemed to recall McCain up by one or two and then it settled two or three points towards the Democrats.

Compared to VA which goes from 65% GOP to 51% Dem over the course of that or PA where it went from 26% Toomey to 51% Toomey, IN is very stable by comparison.

Well, it wasn't a huge swing like that, but iirc Mourdock was still slightly ahead or they were deadlocked with something like ~20% in. Donnelly ultimately ended up winning by 6.

It might be because Mourdock lost a bunch of areas that normally go Republican and likely voted for McCain, or under performed in them producing a wider shift over the course of the night.