I believe that the last 2 elections were flukes in North Carolina. In 2008, Obama didn't make a play for NC until after the financial collapse. After that, the stars lined up perfectly for him. The financial crisis hit Charlotte hard. Black turnout was historic for Obama. Even after all this, Obama barely eked the state out by half a point. In 2012, Black turnout was again historically high, and Romney had all sorts of problems with evangelical voters because he was a Mormon. Yet he still won the state by 2 points. If in future elections ,black turnout drops back to where it was in 2000 and 2004, I think that NC is off the table as a swing state.
Romney turned out more Evengelicals than Bush 2004 did (26% of the Electorate as opposed to 23%) and both got the same 78% among that group.
