Americans favor immigration executive action, 67-28

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

It's a very Democratic pollster FYI

The survey was conducted for Americans United for Change, a pro-Democratic group.

Correct.

Quinnipiac just came out with a new poll yesterday and they show a 45-48 split.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2115

These numbers actually look much like those of 2006 and 2007.

I think it was accurate what was said before, the wording is the biggest determinant how the issue polls and that means the messaging is a large factor in terms of how voters will react as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Here is how Quinnipiac asked the question, first they set it up with this question:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

They then followed up with this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So again they didn't actually describe Obama's executive order and the previous question may actually lead many to think Obama's order was to let every illegal immigrant stay and become a citizen. Again this is why the Hart poll (which described how the order was limited) comes up with a different result.


In a way this is not unlike Obamacare. Polling shows that when asked about it in general, a plurality are opposed to it, but when you ask about the details, majorities like the features of health care reform. And most don't want to see it fully repealed, which is the parallel here. How many Americans want the government to spend the resorces required to deport 11M undocmented, including the 5m who parents of US citizens and have been here 5 years (aka the ones in Obama's order)?

That is the trick for the GOP in 2016. How can they find a way to be against this order and against immigration reform but not be painted as being for massive deportation.

That or being against the order whilst supporting legislative action.

This is the biggest thing people need to understand about the messaging impact. In 2006 and 2007 majorities and pluralties of about 10% to 15% supported a path to citizenship, but the bill to actually do so in 2007 was deeply unpopular. The biggest difference was in 2006 and 2007 there was a focused and energized effort, not unlike what happeend with Obamacare, to label and define it as Amnesty, on Fox, talk radio and even some of the hosts on CNN at the time like Dobbs. They also highlighted the increases in legal immigration and polling shows economically motivated opposition to that as well.

In 2013 you had Rubio running ads on talk radio describing the increased enforcement and downplaying the path, and also describing the path in the most innoucous terms possible. That is why the polling looked so rosy, largely because the messaging was so lopsided and the opposition was marginalized more effectively in 2013 then 2007 (As I said after 2012 the long knives were out and the COC was/is convinced that it is there path to a four year majority of pro-biz shill domination as well as the continued benefit of cheap labor).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

They don't have to make a deal. They just have to pursue the piecemeal strategy (remember McConnell opposed the Senate bill) and get them linked together in tandem somehow so that the McCain/Graham types vote for it. I am sure that Donnelly, Tester, Heitkamp, Manchin, McCaskil and maybe even Bennet (up in 2016) would vote for that and even if they fall short, that evens out the accusation of obstruction.

The strategy also requires that nothing happens so that you can run on effectuating legislative action obviously as opposed to the Democrats unconstitutional executive orders (Pursuing something that would pass would give the Democrats a victory lap/remove the promise of such being pursued once insert Rep is elected obviously and a locked in 70% amongst Hispanics as a reward for Obama's signature). If there is a pile of immigration bills (more then just a border bill) sitting with Obama vetoes or the nay votes of "decided to be dead men walking" Dems, then they can accuse the Democrats of putting politics first.