I wasn't suggesting that Shaheen was really going to lose. I was merely suggesting that all the tossups aren't gonna swing one way or another. All we need is a 50 Dems and AK or Mnt as well as La or Ga runoffs are our firewall. Should an upset happen in NH, Ia or Mi, we go back to firewall. Very likely scenario is 49D/3I/48R.
Don't underestimate Brown either, Hassen is strong, his victory against Coakly came from no where. Obamacare is an issue again. 2 House seats, especially Shea Porter is vulnerable.
It is rather weird to include a pickup as a firewall for a party to hold the Senate. Especially in a state that has not voted for the said party for President in twenty two years. Now if it were a situation in a blue state where a GOP incumbent were retiring and thus was a certain pickup, then maybe.
As far as I can tell, MT is the third likeliest GOP pickup at this point after WV and SD. I think Arkansas is fourth and then Alaska is fifth. That leaves Landrieu and Hagan as firewalls along with the open seats in IA and MI. Until McConnell collapses or one of the two undersirables wins the GA primary runoff, both lean or tilt GOP.
