2014 Senate retirements

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Rounds also staged one hell of a come from behind victory in the 2002 Gubernatorial primary.

And for much of his term he did have Hoeven like numbers. But fine he is not Hoeven, we don't need Hoeven this time. Johanns would suffice.

On the flip side, he did sign a very restrictive abortion law that the state later voted to overturn. It should be noted that even while his abortion law went down to defeat, he was on the same ballot and got 61%. Did I mention that it was in 2006, as well? That said, I hope he sees that one coming in the wake of MO and IN and comes up with a solid and concise response because they will try to destroy him with that.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Just ask Ben Chandler about how surviving 2010 helped, Mr. Phips.


You harp on this but it is not the all and powerfull rule you think it is. It just means they are a strong candidate, it doesn't mean they are set for life. We knew Herseth-Sandlin was strong already so her being so close in 2010 doesn't really change the equation.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Some of that is just ridiculous beyond the pale really. 75%? yea, get real.


We don't even know who half of the states who is for sure for reelection and who is yea for now and then retires during the next year.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My thoughts.
North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

I can't think of a better idea than running the Speaker of a State House with a 15% approval rating and a bevy of education cuts to be wrapped right around his neck.

Stay out of the legislature and stay out of the current US House delegation, that is my advice to the NC GOP and NRSC here and in most of these states that aren't as red, have a history of Dem representation or aren't fastly trending Republican over multiple cycles.

My preferred candidates would be in this order:
Tom Fetzer - Fmr NC GOP chair 2009-2010, Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
Jim Pendergraff  - Unsuccessfull NC-09 candidate, Fmr. Mecklenburg Co. Sheriff
Robin Hayes - Fmr. Congressman NC-08 1995-2009, NC GOP Chair 2011-2012
Steve Troxler - State Secretary of Agriculture 2005-
Cherie Berry - Commissioner of Labor 2001-

The top two have connections in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties respectively, in either of which a reduced margin could spell trouble for Hagan as she'll need both. I heard annecdotal stories about how Fetzer was considering running for Governor in 2012. He most recently played a role in helping Conservative Paul Newby hold his NC Supreme Court seat this year, after successfully leading the state party to its stunning successes in 2010. Pendergraff is a former Democrat and he only barely lost the primary for NC-09, even after getting burried in advertising by his self-funding opponent. Hayes was in Congress, but has been out of there for four years now almost and won't have the most recent unpopularity dragging him down. He also led the state party this time around and though not as great as 2010, was still fairly successfull (Romney won, Governor, Lt. Governor as of last count and even more legislative seats) and no one is going to raise as a concerns lackluster Council of State performances when the big fish went our way.  Troxler and Berry are names people are familiar with as they have been on statewide ballots in high turnout Presidential years atleast three times. There are some concerns that would make me worry about Berry though, regarding favortism and stuff that the Dems would certainly make an issue of if something there is bad enough. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My thoughts.
North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

My preferred candidates would be in this order:
Tom Fetzer - Fmr NC GOP chair 2009-2010, Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
Jim Pendergraff  - Unsuccessfull NC-09 candidate, Fmr. Mecklenburg Co. Sheriff
Robin Hayes - Fmr. Congressman NC-08 1995-2009, NC GOP Chair 2011-2012
Steve Troxler - State Secretary of Agriculture 2005-
Cherie Berry - Commissioner of Labor 2001-

I'm very much hoping it will be Tillis

How bout Paul Coble?

Out of your list, I think Fetzer would be the best; the others are either too old or wouldn't have the fire in their belly, IMO.

The points you make about the GOP running a candidate from Wake or Mecklenburg are very good. They'll need to offset Hagan's margin in the Triad.

Yea, I know you want Tillis, that is why we should try not to give you Tillis.

Maybe, but Holding really rolled over Coble in NC-13 GOP primary, so I don't know if he has the fire anymore either. But he would be a potential wake country candidate, though not as powerfull as Fetzer, would have similar appeal as a statewide candidate. Another former Mayor of Raleigh if my memory serves me. (When the hell did Raleigh have time for so many Republican mayors, the 1990's must have been fun . All I can remember is Dems having come here in 2002).

NC is an urbanizing state, we need canddiates from the Metros.
McCrory and Forest - Charlotte area
Burr - Winston-Salem
 
Raleigh is the missing piece of the pie.

No one from rural areas unless they are already statewide officials or have some kind of built up advantage of some kind, and again no current Congressmen or State Legislators.

I was going to PM you about 2014, but full disclosure is always better.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

My thoughts.
North Carolina -- The state Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, will run against Hagan. Probably. Hagan starts off favored. Probably.

My preferred candidates would be in this order:
Tom Fetzer - Fmr NC GOP chair 2009-2010, Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
Jim Pendergraff  - Unsuccessfull NC-09 candidate, Fmr. Mecklenburg Co. Sheriff
Robin Hayes - Fmr. Congressman NC-08 1995-2009, NC GOP Chair 2011-2012
Steve Troxler - State Secretary of Agriculture 2005-
Cherie Berry - Commissioner of Labor 2001-

I'm very much hoping it will be Tillis

How bout Paul Coble?

Out of your list, I think Fetzer would be the best; the others are either too old or wouldn't have the fire in their belly, IMO.

The points you make about the GOP running a candidate from Wake or Mecklenburg are very good. They'll need to offset Hagan's margin in the Triad.

I just read a Politico article suggesting that Ellmers should run.

LOL

READ MY LIPS NO CURRENT CONGRESSPEOPLE!!! and we got to hold that line!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

At best she'd be Rick Berg, at worst, she'd be Dick/Todd

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

McIntyre burried him with ads full of old peolpe saying "Illario Pantano, don't touch my Social Security". Also, he reminds me a lot of Allen West, even down to the war record issues.

Isn't Tillis also going to have his hands full this year and most of next. I mean Pat wants to reform the tax code, overhaul education, reform DOT and infrastructure, pass voter ID, and general reglatory reform. They have to do something about OBamacare implementation and healthcare in general. And that is on top of the budget process. How is he going to run the chamber and be all over campaigning and rising money to run against Hagan?


Whoever is going to run, needs to get started by June or July of next year.