AZ-Magellan Strategies (R): Romney leads by 9

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Troll poll

...but seriously guys, this is Magellan we're talking about...Obama is AT LEAST 15 points ahead with Hispanics in Arizona and probably more like 20-25 ahead.

About 47% of Arizona's Hispanics in 2004 voted for what I interpret to be the equivalent of CA's Prop 187, denying Illegals welfare. I wouldn't be surprised if a poll said that 40%-45% of AZ Hispanics approve of the "Arizona Immigration Law".

Obama probably leads amongst Hispanics, but not by 20 or 25.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Troll poll

...but seriously guys, this is Magellan we're talking about...Obama is AT LEAST 15 points ahead with Hispanics in Arizona and probably more like 20-25 ahead.

About 47% of Arizona's Hispanics in 2004 voted for what I interpret to be the equivalent of CA's Prop 187, denying Illegals welfare. I wouldn't be surprised if a poll said that 40%-45% of AZ Hispanics approve of the "Arizona Immigration Law".

Obama probably leads amongst Hispanics, but not by 20 or 25.

Would you be surprised by a poll which showed that 81% of registered Hispanic voters in Arizona opposed SB-1070?

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/06/08/20100608arizona-immigration-law-backlash.html

No, not at all. My point is that the group is very volatile and that they tend to not vote like Hispanics do in most places. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Only 28% of Hispanics voted for Jan Brewer, who championed the law and signed it. But 40% voted for John McCain after he had supported and defended the bill as "necessary under the circumstances".

The Rocky Mountain Poll claims that Romney is getting only 26% amongst Hispanics in Arizona.


My estimates at the present would be that Romney is somewhere in the mid 30's (with the possibly of an 5 to 8 point improvement depending on how he targets that group going forward) and with Obama around 50% or so.