NV-02 special election: 9/13

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Do all the Republican candidates live in Reno or in the Northern part of NV-02. If its in say the NV-02 part of Clark, or in Nye county, then they will likely be in a district with Heck.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Do all the Republican candidates live in Reno or in the Northern part of NV-02. If its in say the NV-02 part of Clark, or in Nye county, then they will likely be in a district with Heck.

Pretty sure they're all from Reno or Carson City.

Same for Marshall?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This could end up like the end of the original Casino Royale with everybody going crazy, fighting each other, Americans charging in on Horses, Indians dropping out of planes, and Sharron Angle playing the part of Woody Allen and exploding at the end.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Amodei is dominating the early voting.

http://www.co.washoe.nv.us/voters/11SPECEVTO.html

Early Vote a Bad Omen for Harry Reid

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43835.html

(not that I'd bet any money on a Dem winning NV-2.)

Angle however did win NV-02, if I recall. The problem was NV-01.

Not by enough though (you need 59% to 63% of the vote there to be on target for a statewide win) and she probably lost the third district (which you need 49% to 52% for a statewide win).



Keep in mind that it is very important for Amodei to win Washoe or to tie it 50-50. If he loses it by a wider margin and only narrowly wins a squeaker district wide, he could have problems in 2012. This district currently contains heavily GOP exurbs in Clark county and the cow country, of which all of the former and about half (territory wise) of the latter, will be removed from the district and placed into one of the Clark seats (probably the third).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Please read my scenario again. If Amodei wins by 1% or less in the current district and then the new lines move it 2 to 3 maybe more points towards the democrats, he will be in trouble in 2012. He may not lose, but he will be in trouble. A lot of it depends on how the map is drawn, but unless the court goes crazy and draws a LV to Reno seat, NV-02 will become more Democratic then it is now, by virtue of geography and population distribution.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

No that is not my scenario, at all. Try again, BSB.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why is this so hard to grasp? I said if he loses Washoe by a WIDE MARGIN and wins district wide by 1% or less, he will have problems in 2012 because Washoe will make up more of the damn vote in 2012 then it does now. Yes incumbency will help, but only by a few points. And even if he wins narrowly again, my point is that he would have problems, not that he would loose.

If he wins Washoe or comes close, the Democrats will likely concede trying to contest the damn thing in favor of more favorable options.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why are Republicans spending so much? The race has always been in their favour.

They are still doing what they did in 2009. Blowing large sums of money in the hopes of moving the dial a few points.


To be fair, the PPP poll was incredibly close and Amodei didn't look this strong a few weeks ago. "Amodei sending strong Angle Vibes"?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Results should be here:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NV_Page_0913.html

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NV_Page_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

You left the end off of it. Without it, it goes to the wrong page.