I always put Riley on the 2016 tier, in my mind. But, if he runs, he will probaly be taking votes from Barbor. Could be a Gingrich or Huckabee stalking horse. But, he is no Buddy Roemor.
It seems that all three could loose a state potentially and votes because of his entrance. He was a McCain backer in 2008. He also raised taxes at the beginning of his term if I remember (though that may have been another state). I know he was unpopular going in to 2006 and almost lost a primary to Roy Moore but recovered, won the primary and then won the general.
Would be a good runningmate for Pawlenty or Daniels, possibly.