2012 a bloodbath for Democrats in the senate?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There should be a lot of close races, but it will depend a lot on the national climate.

Everyone seems to think that Webb, McCaskill and Bill Nelson are weak, I think they're all in an ok position.

Exactly. Unlike Republicans this year, Schumer picked great candidates in 2006. Brown, Webb, McCaskil and Tester are much better politicians and campaigners than Paul, Johnson and Coats.

I don't think those three will be running in OH, VA, MO, MT. Webb, Brown, and Nelson of Florida are in in ok position but not perfect or safe. 

McCaskil's numbers are horrible and I don't think she will be able to do as well in central MO as she did in 2006. Tester's future depends on the environment and his opponent. If it's Rehberg, he probably has a real race and if obama gets trounced in MT, probably an uphill climb.  Ben Nelson is in big trouble in Nebraska.

Brown and Webb certainly have some talent, that won't prevent them from being targetted though.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts. 

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

There was far more ticket splitting in 1984 and even then, Republicans only lost two seats when they had far more up then Democrats.  Voters have not split their tickets to vote against an incumbent Senator who wasnt involved in a scandal since 1988. 

Was Ashcroft in a scandal? He was unpopular but I don't remember a scandal?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I expect the GOP to gain in the Senate, even if there is an Obama landslide.  The question is, how much?

If Obama is the next Jimmy Carter, I could see the Democrats losing 8-13 seats.

If Obama wins a landslide, Democrats will likely pick up a seat or two.  They will certainly lose Nebraska but would pick up Nevada and Massachussetts.  

Maybe you better look at the landslide of 1984.  There are just too many seats up to save them all.

There was far more ticket splitting in 1984 and even then, Republicans only lost two seats when they had far more up then Democrats.  Voters have not split their tickets to vote against an incumbent Senator who wasnt involved in a scandal since 1988.  

Was Ashcroft in a scandal? He was unpopular but I don't remember a scandal?

Forgot about that one.  I dont count that one because of the whole deal with his opponent dying and then being replaced with his wife.  

He wasn't replaced with his wife till after the election, but yeah it definately is a special case

There is also SD 1996, Larry Pressler gets defeated by Tim Johnson despite Dole carrying the state. Again, no scandal that I can remember. Pressler just suffered from general voter fatigue I believe.