Siena polls four NY State Senate seats (SD3, SD11, SD44, SD48) (user search)
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  Siena polls four NY State Senate seats (SD3, SD11, SD44, SD48) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Siena polls four NY State Senate seats (SD3, SD11, SD44, SD48)  (Read 3397 times)
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« on: October 02, 2010, 08:26:56 PM »
It should be noted that in 2006 despite Clinton and Client number nine winning with 65% and 69%, the only three House seats the GOP lost, all had flawed candidates, which with the exception of NY-24, probably determined the outcome.

NY-19 Sue Kelly, Foley Scandal
NY-20 John Sweeney, Personal scandal
NY-24 Raymond Meier, ran a very desperate ad that backfired (still would have lost but by 3 or 4 instead of 10).

Walsh, Reynolds, and Kuhl all held on.

In 2008. Three more seats were lost, one of which was due to scandal, NY-13. The others a weak incumbent (NY-29, likely a fluke), and NY-25 (No GOP candidate of enough stature to hold such a seat, especially in that environment).

Combine a good environment, with some good candidates and you will see some strong showings despite Schumer getting 61%-64% and Cuomo 58% (I think that is most he would get now).
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2010, 01:19:51 AM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on October 02, 2010, 11:02:51 PM
Quote from: The Demon's Façade on October 02, 2010, 08:26:56 PM
It should be noted that in 2006 despite Clinton and Client number nine winning with 65% and 69%, the only three House seats the GOP lost, all had flawed candidates, which with the exception of NY-24, probably determined the outcome.

NY-19 Sue Kelly, Foley Scandal
NY-20 John Sweeney, Personal scandal
NY-24 Raymond Meier, ran a very desperate ad that backfired (still would have lost but by 3 or 4 instead of 10).

Walsh, Reynolds, and Kuhl all held on.

In 2008. Three more seats were lost, one of which was due to scandal, NY-13. The others a weak incumbent (NY-29, likely a fluke), and NY-25 (No GOP candidate of enough stature to hold such a seat, especially in that environment).

Combine a good environment, with some good candidates and you will see some strong showings despite Schumer getting 61%-64% and Cuomo 58% (I think that is most he would get now).

SD-35 is a far more Democratic district than any of the House districts Democrats picked up in 2006 or 2008.  I think even Dukakis won it in 1988. 

1) Strong showins /= wins

2) I was refuting the Coattails arguement.
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