I wish people would notice several facts about what I said.
1. I never once said that Portman was in the lead.
2. I never said he would take the lead except maybe in August some time.
3. And yes while while margin of error movement is just that, across several polls over the past week (remember what my standard of comparison is when making that statement. My standard of comparison was the post primary bounce that Fisher got that was exhibited again in most polls except Q which hasn't poll since March so I am assuming that Q would have had a march bigger lead in a May poll which had they conducted it then but they didn't so its an assumption and one the makes more sense.
4. If the plantiff will note also that what I said the movement was toward, which was 0% margin, which by the very nature of Portmans previous position of being down a few points would then require a movement toward Portman to bring it back to zero.
Sometimes I think you people only skim for key words and don't grasp my arguements within a single post more or less across several which has occured here.
A month ago several polls said Portman was down by 2 to 4 and Rassy was tied. Now it Portman is within 1 or 2 and leading according to Rassy. In the space of a month across several polling firms, thats as much "movement" as is to be expected in this race so unless you want to keep saying its tied, its tied, its tied, for several months, I would suggest that everyone apply a certain set of standards to this race that aren't appropriate in states with more wide ranges and much more volatillity until such time as this race starts to some some confidence towards one or the other candidate.
That is all.
Statistical movement within the margin of error to achieve a preference of a particular candidate. Surely, you gotta add this to the PA poll where I think OH and MO can be argued. Where it is more of a deadheat than in favor of Toomey.
Which is why I compare polls within each company with their previous polling and then compare the margin of difference with the margin of differences from other companies and when I see such a correlation of movement across the firms, I can confidently say there is some movement in a certain race. But what the movement is towards and from matters and thats what most failed to realize when criticizing me.
I think Toomey has a very very narrow lead.
Also I think the word Toss-up is for cowards.
I try to use it only on rare occasions. And Ohio is the only one that would really deserve it for Senate at all and even then I can say it likely still tilts Fisher.
