Republicans win VG and NJ. What does this mean...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

IT means several things. Both bad and good.

The first thing is that Independents for the first time since 2004 and probably 2002 choose the Republican over the Democrat overall. That has a lot to do with the candidates and how they ran there campaigns. If Republicans were smart they would follow the Christie and McDonnell path. That is avoid social issues and focus on the Economy and local issues such as education, taxes, infrastructure, etc. That doesn't mean you abandond or ignore social issues, it just means you don't shove them in peoples faces and you don't make the race about the Homos coming to eat you. McDonnell is a social conservative for sure, but he never once campaigned or promoted that. He instead focused on what would appeal to more people. He also had the luxury of not having a primary which allowed him to more easily avoid these issues and no worries about dividing the party either. Everything clicked in Virginia and if we want to start winning we got to start following that model more often. Its how to elect conservatives in a swing state.

Another thing that we got out of this is how not to win an election. That is in NY-23. Both the Conservative and REpublican candidates sucked. One was an elitist liberal to the left of many dems who was so inept in a tough race that she imploded under the pressure. The other was an inexperienced political novice, who was seen as more of an outsider by the district then the elitist pluck by the party establishment to run, and too conservative to win. Every other add was about Abortion and Gays and it was proven years ago in the 90's that dog won't hunt in NY anymore way back when it was tried as a method to save Frisa in 1996 and it only made it worse for him. If Hoffman ran on the debt, gov't spending, and taxes, he might be a Congressmen today. Of course he also flopped big time in the debate. Take out all the National Spin and hype and its likely that Owens has been leading on the ground for about a week or more and its likely that Hoffman was never even close to winning.   

Another bad one for the GOP is that despite what happened to Corzine, the Dems really escaped major harm in the Assembly. Though several local races did go Republican like the Freeholder seats in Bergen, etc. Meaning New Jersey was largely the economy and an unpopular Governor, nothing more.

Some good news is that Republicans did make major gains in Virginia, particulary reclaiming ground in the NOVA back to at least 2002 or 2000 levels and wiping out almost as many Dem Assembly gains in that time.

Also there appears some evidence of a GOP rebirth in Suburban New York. We won the Westchester County Executive seat, ousting what was thought to be a safe Dem. In Nassau co, Tom Souzzi is clinging to only a few hundred vote lead and eventhough he is likely to win reelection, the county assembly was seized by the GOP. The problem is despite recovery in Suburban NY, nothing will change in NY, untill the GOP can reverse the destructive trends upstate particulary in the metros like Syracuse and Rochester. Also the Conservative party has got to quit screwing our party over like splitting the Nassau vote allowing Souzzi to win.

I don't think there is any meaningfull swing against Obama. There was a swing for the GOP among Indies, which is good. Also there were no major midwestern or Mountain state races. All the interesting stuff occrured on the coasts. We know from SWVA that Appalachia is only swinging more against the Dems and that will be true across the South. If you are a blue dog in a rural Southern district, I suggest you have your bags packed and ready to go. What we don't know is whether this will have an effect anywhere else like the Midwest and Mountain states, or if its completely isolated. My guess is its somewhere in between.

There is BIG ANTI INCUMBENT TREND and that is what gives the GOP most hope especially in Governor's races where a sweep could put the GOP in control of a 12 Dem Governorships. In a landslide year not only will TN, KS, WY, and OK go but also CO, IA, ME, OR, PA, MI, WI, OH. You got states like ILL and NY where if it weren't for the collaspe of the GOP they would both be leaning towards pickups.