I think she could actually go down this year. If Trump wins Wisconsin even narrowly, Baldwin has close to zero crossover appeal the same way Brown or Casey do. Its possible Hovde even outruns Baldwin. He will probably do better in places like WOW than her.
She has some based on 2018 but agree not in the same magnitude.
Some of it is also downballot lag in certain areas of rural WI, mainly driftless (but then you also have downballot lag favoring Hodve in WOW).
The thing with 2018 though is the GOP completely triaged that race. She ran against a virtually nonexistent campaign as Republicans weren't even targeting Ohio seriously that year.