Another thing is a lot of growth in WOW is actually people who moved from Milwaukee. So while the R margin decreases there it doesn't really affect the statewide result.
Wisconsin is a swing state that purely comes down to turnout. In some ways, it's good because we know its going to be pretty damn close, but also its borderline impossible to predict turnout like we can with margins. So I guess let's just say for example the turnout is the same as 2020. Not neccesarily the same amount of raw votes, but the same proportion per county.
Even if Biden gets JANET margins in Dane, and the three WOW counties, that only puts the state around 2.5ish for Biden. All Trump has to do is swing the rest of the state 4 points in his favor to narrowly eeke out a win, and that doesn't even include Milwuakee! But Janet was probably the absolute ceiling for WI Dems. If Biden gets Evers margins in those places, Trump only needs to swing the rest of the state (not-including Milwuakee) by 3.
However, this assumes we get 2020 turnout rates. If the rural part of the state stays home, but the Dem engine comes out in Dane, then Biden can start running away with the state.
Barring that though, the state is going to be tight but Trump has more upside here than Biden, and the more I look at it I think he has better odds in Wisconsin than even Georgia now.
Where in Wi do you think Biden will be weakest relative to 2020?
The driftless swung R in 2020 and Wisconsin even trended R in 2020 which should be somewhat worrying to Biden.
