Some Dems think Biden likelier to win NC than GA

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those. If he couldn't get a landslide in 2020 when the country was in recession, Trump was more unpopular than ever, and Biden himself had better favorables, he isn't going to get one now.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I'm puzzled why Biden is trying to expand the map at this point. There are 5 states that flipped from 2016 and Nevada, he should focus on those.

I understand where you're coming from, but I think you're overthinking it. It is perfectly reasonable for Biden to contest a state that he lost by just 1.34%.

It's not as if he's spreading himself thin by going for a 50-state-strategy. I don't buy that focusing on 5 states is a significantly better use of Biden's time than focusing on 6 states.

It's just an unnecessary use of resources, the same way Trump contesting Minneosta in 2020 was. And there isnt even a senate race there either. 1.34% may seem close but it was still like 70k votes. That's a bit more than Bidens raw net in AZ, GA, WI, and NV combined.

From an electoral perspective there’s a non-0 chance NC is the tipping point (though it’s unlikely). Furthermore, as I said earlier NC has other important races up; Biden doing well enough to get Stein over the edge, win the State Supreme Court seat and break NC Rs legislative supermajority would be a huge win, even if Biden loses statewide.

If I were in the Biden team, the only 2 Trump states I’d make any serious investment in are TX and NC, not necessarily with the expectation of winning but to help the long term prospects for Dems in those states.

If Stein and Jackson win, Dems hold the SCNC seat, the supermajority is broken, and Don Davis is re-elected, that’s a huge win for the NCDP even if Biden himself falls short.

The thing is Biden and the NCDP are different entities. The truth is the National Dem party and Biden's goal is to win the federal trifecta, the results of a state party are irrelevant to them compared to the federal trifecta. Unless there is a federal senate seat, local races are up to the state party to maneuver.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

From what I understand wasn't this largely true of both sides? Both sort of lumped it into the same bucket as states like OH and IA - R-leaning states that could be competitive but weren't must-wins. Though one can definitely argue Dems had a stronger grassroots effort in GA that cycle; urban GA blacks for instance saw a huge turnout increase from 2016-->2020 as many other urban black places in states like PA and WI saw declines.

Honestly it wasn't until October when Dems actually started making a serious play for Georgia all of a sudden. For Dems after that point, it was viewed as a central key state the same way NC and FL were whereas for the GOP it was somewhat of a backwater state like Ohio or Iowa.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One thing worth noting though, is in 2020 Trump's campaign invested and competed far more in NC than Georgia. The RNC convention was held in Charlotte even though it became relatively pointless due to Covid, but Trump also held 7 rallies in NC versus only 2 in Georgia.

To me, Trump treated GA in 2020 the way Clinton treated MI in 2016. Saw it as a state that was still "safeish" for 1 more cycle at least even though it was trending away from their party. I don't think Trump really even went to GA until the end of the campaign.
Probably why he was the angriest about GA flipping

His campaign saw it as somewhat vulnerable, but they figured that if they lost GA, we would be looking at a Biden landslide with Florida and NC already in the blue column and thus it wasn't a major target in the campaign for them.