For fun, I actually went through this with 2020 numbers and would say it's almost impossible unless the bottom totally falls out for Democrats. Or at least it would require significant changes in turnout in various states (ergo low turnout in Democratic strongholds and equal/increased turnout in Republican strongholds).
Cali has to be something closer to 15%, most likely, for Trump +3 nationally. And Texas has to be closer to 58-38 too. That would boost Trump about 49% vs Biden's 46.7% or so in that chart. Then a add few percentage points for Trump in NJ, CT, OR, WA, MA should get close to 3% lead. But of course, the question arises as to the viability of Californa as D+15 and Texas R+20
In the other thread, people were arguing that Texas could swing left or remain stagnant while the popular vote shifts 3-4% in favor of Trump. That can't happen mathematically (unless Trump actually wins California outright or something)
The other possibility is RFK Jr. and others eat so many votes to give us a quirky result, such as Trump 44%, Biden 41%, RFK Jr 10, Other 5%
There is no way California will be Biden+15. At best for Trump it will be in the 22-25 range, although that is still a big improvement from 2020.
