Most likely upset out of OH, CO, WA, and IA

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think it's Smiley for a few reasons
1) Vance is already starting to pull away with polling in this race, Ryan just seems unable to keep it competitive as it was earlier this year. RCP average is Vance+5
2) O'Dea has tried, but I think Bennett is going to take this one by a comfortable margin. The polling never really tightened and O'Dea seems to struggle with the GOP base. RCP average is Bennett+5.3
3) Iowa is a weird one, as polls for this race have beeen few and far between. Barring a blue wave, I just don't think voters are going to throw out Chuck Grassley out although is margin will certainly narrow and he could be held to single digits. He has lost significant crossover support, and his age might be a turnoff factor as well. I just don't see Trump voters abandoning ship to vote for a Democrat in a red leaning year. I agree with Eraserhead though that we should wait for the Selzer poll though.

Smiley on the other hand is very much still in the race. Murray's lead has tightened to just 3 points on RCP. Altough we don't have much polls for this race, it's an important note that she hasn't managed to pull away in this race from the summer unlike Vance - if anything it's gotten quite a bit closer. Even 538 has shown her polling lead go down from double digits to now 6 points. Smiley is also making a very big push at the end with her "New mom in town" bus tour. I expect Murray to win the race, but this is probably seat 55 for the GOP if that somehow happens and not Colorado.